The rapid “UK variant” spread of coronavirus could become the prevalent strain in the United States in March, according to a new report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
About 76 cases of the new variant, known as B.1.1.7, have been detected in 10 U.S. states so far, but its ability to spread more easily than other variants means it can take off quickly here, according to a new computer model of the spread, detailed in a report on Friday (January 15) in the CDC newspaper Weekly morbidity and mortality report.
Even though this variant of SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus that causes COVID-19) is not considered to cause more serious diseases, its projected increase is especially worrying because more cases in general mean more hospitalizations and more deaths.
Related: Rapidly spreading UK coronavirus variant: all your questions answered
The launch of Vaccines for covid-19 it will eventually reduce the COVID-19 transmission significantly, but it probably won’t happen until B.1.1.7 becomes the dominant variant, according to the model.
In the meantime, “increased transmission of SARS-CoV-2 can threaten depleted health resources, require a more extensive and rigorous implementation of public health strategies and increase the percentage of population immunity needed to control the pandemic”, said the authors.
To avoid the worst case scenario, health authorities find themselves emphasizing once again the need to delay the spread of the virus, with masks, detachment and adherence to quarantines, which can lessen the impact of B.1.1.7 and “allow time critical to increasing vaccine coverage, “wrote the authors.
In the new model, the researchers assumed that B.1.1.7 currently has a prevalence of 0.5% in the USA among all COVID-19 infections and that it is 50% more transmissible than other variants. The model also assumed that about 10% to 30% of the US population has immunity to COVID-19 due to previous infections, and that about 1 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine are administered daily starting January 1. 2021. (As of January 15, about 11 million doses have been administered, resulting in less than 1 million doses per day, According to the CDC.)
The model projects that the prevalence of B.1.1.7 will increase rapidly in early 2021 and will become the predominant variant in March, meaning that most infections will be from this variant compared to others. In the model, the launch of vaccines did not change the variant’s initial trajectory, but started later and eventually reduced transmission significantly.
The effect of vaccines in reducing short-term transmission of COVID-19 was greatest when transmission was already decreasing, the authors said, further reinforcing the importance of slowing the spread of the virus now.
These data show “that universal use and greater compliance with mitigation and vaccination measures are crucial to substantially reducing the number of new cases and deaths in the coming months,” the authors said.
Enhanced efforts to track the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and look for other worrying variants are also essential. The agency is currently working to strengthen its vigilance in this area.
Originally published on Live Science.