The Tua Tagovailoa-Ryan Fitzpatrick dolphin puzzle just won’t go away

They don’t call it Fitzmagic just because it looks cool. Throughout his 16-year career as a vagabond professional defender, Ryan Fitzpatrick has earned a reputation for unlikely returns and exciting plays. He also had his share of breakdowns and errors. But these things go together – for Fitzmagic to happen, teams need to accept the good with the bad. They need to accept that Fitzpatrick is the type of defender who takes great risks to make great plays happen.

It is a lesson that Your Tagovailoa will have to learn soon. On Saturday night, Tagovailoa was put on the bench in favor of Fizpatrick, who came and guided the Dolphins to a surprising 26-25 win over the Raiders, thanks to a wild comeback effort. It was the second time Miami eliminated its rookie this season, after a week 11 defeat to the Broncos. The decision to seat the quarterback that they made in none. 5 in the 2020 draft for the second time could trigger a quarterback controversy for the 10-5 Dolphins, who are on track for a playoff appearance. While most teams choose to see what they have in a rookie instead of showing a 38-year-old, the Dolphins are on the verge of their first postseason post since 2016 – and it certainly looks like Fitzpatrick is the defender who can do your best to help Miami win in the short term.

Against the Raiders, Tagovailoa failed to make anything happen. The attack transformed four possessions in the first half into two three and three and two field goals. Then, in the third quarter, Tagovailoa began a nine-game, 75-yard touchdown attempt. But in each of the following three possessions, the Dolphins’ attack failed to win any yards and scored after three moves. Tagovailoa finished with a paltry 94 yards in 22 passing attempts before being pulled. Coach Brian Flores clarified after the game that Tagovailoa will remain the starter in the attack.

Fitzpatrick provided an immediate spark. In its first attempt, the Miami attack took 84 yards in 13 moves, including consecutive deep shots for tight end Mike Gesicki, who scored a total of 48 yards for the team. In the second shot, the Dolphins found the final zone in just three moves, thanks to a 59-yard score from running back Miles Gaskin, who made his way through the Las Vegas defense after receiving a short throw from Fitzpatrick. And in the final blow, starting with just 19 seconds remaining and a deficit of one point, Fitzpatrick won 34 yards – plus 15 for hitting the passer – on a pass to Mack Hollins.

It was a sensational comeback effort that keeps the Dolphins on track for the postseason. Although the Bills have already won AFC East, Miami has a 69 percent chance of getting one of the conference’s wildcard spots, for The New York Times. A victory over Buffalo next week would be the Dolphins’ postseason ticket, as well as giving the franchise its best record since 2008.

Miami’s reconstruction is well underway, which could make Tagovailoa’s game so frustrating this season. Usually, it makes perfect sense for a franchise with a highly recruited novice quarterback to put that passer in the starting lineup, even though a veteran in the squad may be the best short-term game. But dolphins need to win now, and in eight matches, Tagovailoa did not help them do that.

This season, the only thing Tagovailoa has been particularly good at is avoiding interceptions. He launched only two choices this season, making him just one of three quarterbacks with an interception rate below one percent, and the other two QBs (Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes) are candidates for MVP. But on Saturday, Tua had an average of less than 170 yards per game (easily the lowest of the initial QBs), had made touchdowns on 4.3% of his passes (22nd) and had an average of 6.5 yards per attempt (28º). He is ranked 32nd in the Pro Football Focus pass scores (out of 39 qualified quarterbacks).

Tagovailoa was a very conservative passerby. By PFF, Tagovailoa threw the ball more than 20 yards on the field in just 10.0 percent of his strokes, 29th out of 39 qualified passers. Although an offense need having deep passes to succeed (the Saints and Titans have been doing very well without them), on a night when the Dolphins desperately needed any big move, Tagovailoa did not go deep once:

Fitzpatrick is exactly the opposite type of player. He throws more yards per game, more yards per attempt, has a higher touchdown rate … and also throws a lot more interceptions. This season, he launched eight choices, making his interception rate (3.1 percent coming in on Saturday) more than triple Tua’s. But when Fitzpatrick is inside, the Dolphins’ attack moves the ball better – as evidenced by the team’s frantic return against the Raiders. And sometimes, this can be more important than an increased risk of turnover.

It is easy to think that the worst thing a quarterback can do is throw interceptions, but that is not true. Often, the worst defenders are not the players who constantly play for defense (although that is certainly not a good thing), but those who are so risk averse that they cannot make great plays. At best, these types of conservative game managers can have a career like Alex Smith’s. For example, Jameis Winston’s infamous season of 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions last year totaled net yards adjusted for an attempt of 6.15. The ANY / A of Tagovailoa is at 5.95. This is not a fair comparison – Tagovailoa is a rookie, Winston was a fifth-year veteran in 2019 – but it demonstrates a provocative idea: a team prefers a lunatic interception hitter in the quarterback than Tagovailoa now. And that’s exactly why the Dolphins put Tua on the bench twice.

And, although it is often overlooked, Fitzpatrick’s propensity to take the ball to recipients in less than ideal situations also means that he carries fewer bags than Tagovailoa. He came in on Saturday with a layoff rate of 5.2%, while Tua’s stood at 7.1%. Tagovailoa took three bags against the Raiders, while Fitzpatrick took zero.

To be fair to Tagovailoa, his offensive line did not perform better against the Raiders. While Tagovailoa was sometimes unable to get into his pocket or sail away from pressure, he also had Raider supporters breathing on his neck for much of the night. The high sack rate of Tagovailoa this season is partly a result of its presence in the pocket still not well adjusted, but also because the Dolphins’ offensive line is just bad.

In addition, Tagovailoa is in its first season. He’s still learning, and Flores ‘quick decision to keep Tagovailoa in the starting position for week 17 and beyond shows that the Dolphins’ rebuilding goes beyond just a post-season appearance. This franchise is linked to Tua for now, and the best way for the novice to learn is in the field.

Yours may even find Fitzpatrick a great teacher. In Week 11, after Miami defeated Tagovailoa against the Broncos, Fitzpatrick told the rookie that when the defensive line is dominating up front, “sometimes … you have to throw a little bit of a contested ball”.

But Tagovailoa has yet to put Fitzpatrick’s words into practice. “I will continue to accept what the defense gives me”, Tagovailoa said after Saturday’s game. “If it is not open, I will not play.”

If Tua can learn anything from Fitzpatrick, it’s that sometimes you just can’t be content with what the defense gives you. Sometimes, you need to do your own magic.