While the Taliban’s tactics vary from region to region, the results are generally the same: increased taxation on highways, declining morale among Afghan security forces with ever-decreasing US support and growing fear among those living in areas before safe.
The Taliban’s goal is to force the Afghan government to comply with its peace terms. In Qatar, Taliban leaders have demanded the release of some 7,000 prisoners and the establishment of an interim government, two requests that Ashraf Ghani, the president of Afghanistan, has so far refused.
“The Taliban seems to believe that applying this pressure, preparing its fighters to potentially attack Kandahar and other urban centers, will pressure the United States to withdraw, or else,” said Watkins. “Strategic logic can have the opposite effect.”
To prepare for a possible multifaceted attack if the United States remains beyond the May 1 deadline, the Pentagon has requested additional military options – including an increase in US troops or a commitment to more air support from the U.S. Central Command, which it oversees operations in the Middle East and Afghanistan, according to two American officials. Whether these requests will be met depends on the next move by the Biden government, which is expected to be announced in the coming weeks, following the completion of a review of the current Taliban deal.
The unrest has already delayed the delivery of the Kandahar airfield, a large American base east of the capital, to Afghan forces in recent months. For now, a small deployment of US and NATO troops remains to support Afghan fighting forces, according to a US military official.
With the police force mostly in ruins, the Afghan army and commandos moved to Kandahar, starting operations in November to retake the territory that was taken over by the Taliban. Command officials said their forces were depleted by frequent orders to meet the police.
In the Arghandab district, site of the northern Taliban offensive in the city of Kandahar, army leaders and police say they are understaffed and their requests for support have been ignored by the authorities in Kabul.