Cats, rabbits and hedgehogs have all been implicated in a new study that aims to predict the animals most likely to launch the next deadly outbreak of COVID-19.
With the help of artificial intelligence, biologists were able to design a prediction model that could prioritize potential hosts of strains of viruses already known, but that have not yet reached humans.
“We want to know where the next coronavirus can come from,” said Dr. Marcus Blagrove, a virologist at the University of Liverpool who worked on the study, the BBC reported.
Their findings, published in Nature Communications on Tuesday, describe how artificial intelligence was used to predict previously unsuspected host animals for a new – and potentially deadly – coronavirus strain.
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Finding out which of the 876 potential mammal species could host one – but often dozens – of the 411 possible strains was the easy part. The trick was to analyze species that could harbor two strains at once, creating a breeding ground for a powerful mutant virus.
“One way [viruses are] generated is through recombination between two existing coronaviruses, “said Blagrove.” Then, two viruses infect the same cell and recombine into a ‘child’ virus that would be an entirely new strain. “
Animals such as the civet, common hedgehog, European rabbit, dromedary camel, some species of primates and domesticated pigs and cats were considered the main suspects of the recombination of SARS-CoV2 – the strain that caused COVID-19 – with perhaps dozens of other coronaviruses . These creatures enter the list of usual suspects, including bats and pangolins.
Recombination has already been observed in some of these species, according to previous studies cited in the new report. But to identify new sources for these undiscovered “daughter” strains, the algorithm based its assessment on biological similarities between known hosts and their related species, according to lead researcher Dr. Maya Wardeh.
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“We were able to predict which species were likely to have many coronaviruses infecting them,” she explained. “Or because they are closely related [to a species known to carry a coronavirus] or because they share the same geographic space. “
Scientists hope that these findings will help encourage more complete monitoring of how and where nature meets the human world, as researchers point out that the viral “spread” of animals to people is primarily the result of reckless human activity. .
“This is not a reason to demonize these species,” said Dr. Wardeh.
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