A third day of more than 800 new cases of coronavirus in South Carolina does not cancel out the general decline the state has seen in recent months, but experts warn that the spread may increase again in the coming weeks.
Both cases and deaths have declined slowly since the peak of late summer, but remain higher than what the state saw in the spring and early summer, as authorities ordered people to stay home.
Experts have long warned that a second wave of increased spread could come with a colder climate, and the state Department of Health and Environmental Control has warned southern Carolinians of the growing danger that the flu season brings.
On Saturday, projections published on the DHEC website showed cases increasing as October enters November, with a peak of around 5,000 cases per day in January.
The rate would fall again in the spring if current social distance mandates continue, according to the projection, but will continue to rise to 7,250 if precautions are eased.
A separate trajectory, showing the number of cases if masks are used universally, shows lower autumn and winter numbers than now in the state.
State figures
New cases reported: 860, 444% more than the 158 registered on March 31, the day Governor Henry McMaster ordered the closure of non-essential companies.
Total cases in SC: 150,915, plus 5,706 probable cases.
New reported deaths: 21
Total deaths in SC: 3,346, plus 205 probable deaths.
Hospitalized patients: 728
Total tests in SC: 1,611,221
Percentage of positive tests, average of seven days: 11.8 percent. Five percent or less of the tests with positive results is a good sign that the spread of the virus is slowing, say the researchers.
Most affected areas
South Carolina’s top counties for new coronavirus cases reported on Saturday were Horry, 116; Greenville, 108; and Spartanburg, 69.
What about the tri-county?
Charleston County had 41 new cases, Berkeley had 12 and Dorchester had 21.
Deaths
Of the 21 new deaths, 16 were elderly patients aged 65 and over and four were middle-aged patients aged 35 to 64 years. One was a young adult aged 18 to 34, from Greenville County.
They lived in the counties of Cherokee, Clarendon, Greenville, Greenwood, Horry, Kershaw, Lexington, Newberry, Oconee, Orangeburg, Pickens, Richland, Spartanburg, Union and York.
Hospitalizations
Of 728 coronavirus patients who were hospitalized by Saturday, DHEC said, 179 were in intensive care with 93 on ventilators.
What do the experts say?
Public health officials continue to urge Southern Carolinians to take precautions such as wearing masks or other facial masks, social distancing and frequent hand washing.
They also recommend that anyone who believes they have been exposed to the virus or who are developing symptoms get tested. Those who live in the community or cannot distance themselves socially should be tested monthly, DHEC advised.
There are 115 mobile test events scheduled through November 30 and 298 permanent test facilities. Visit scdhec.gov/covid19testing to find a test site in your area.
Talk to Sara Coello at 843-937-5705 and follow her on Twitter @smlcoello.