But getting McConnell and at least 16 other Republicans to condemn Trump after he leaves office is another matter.
“There is no love lost at the Senate Republican Conference for Trump,” said a Republican Party source familiar with the internal discussions. “Everyone is ready for this end. But there is a really open question about how many people will vote to convict him after his term has expired.”
Several senior Republican Party sources told CNN on Thursday that many Republicans are undecided whether Trump’s actions justify the unprecedented move to ban him from serving in office again after he leaves the White House next week.
Republicans say it will ultimately depend on a combination of factors – the case developed by the House’s impeachment managers, whether new information about Trump and the Capitol’s deadly riot and whether emotions are still raw at the time of voting – to determine whether Republicans will break ranks and end Trump’s political career forever.
Privately, Republicans have reviewed internal polls showing Trump’s support among Republican voters since election day – especially since last week, when he incited a violent crowd of his supporters to riot on Capitol Hill, leading to the deaths of five people, said two sources. But even after he leaves office, he must still maintain significant control over the Republican Party base, something that Republicans facing re-election – and the main potential opponents – will be forced to face.
Republicans are generally divided into several fields. Some, like Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton, oppose the proceedings because, they argue, it is constitutionally doubtful to condemn a president after he leaves office, a position that many Republicans must adopt.
“I doubt that we can have a trial for a former president, which is what we’re dealing with here,” Republican Senator Kevin Cramer of North Dakota told CNN on Thursday.
Others, like Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, are likely to ally with many House Republicans, who said the impeachment process would further divide the country.
“An impeachment vote will only lead to more hatred and a deeply fragmented nation,” said Scott, who will face voters in 2022 this week.
Still, some Republicans say it is critical to establish a framework to make it clear that Congress will not run for future presidents who can follow Trump’s path – and that the president’s actions have crossed a clear line that should never be repeated again.
“I think it is one of the most important actions we should take, and I think it would be appropriate.”
In a statement on Thursday, Murkowski said he would “listen carefully” to the arguments before making a decision on his vote, but said the House acted “quickly, and I believe, appropriately with the impeachment”.
McConnell, for example, privately told his colleagues that he is genuinely indecisive and will keep an open mind when listening to arguments made by Democratic House impeachment managers, according to people familiar with the matter. He wants to let the passions of the moment cool down and let the trial unfold before taking a position that many consider to be the key to influencing the Republican Party’s Senate votes – and determining whether Trump will be convicted.
“There is no difference at the conference (GOP) that there are potentially objectionable crimes here,” said the first Republican source. “I think almost everyone believes that.”
Indeed, many continue to criticize Trump’s statements to his supporters at the rally last week that preceded the Capitol riot.
“If anything, he asked in a very emotional situation, very inappropriate action by people who appear to be his supporters,” said Sen. Mike Rounds, a South Dakota Republican, after the protesters stormed the Capitol.
Republican senators, who are out of Washington until next week, are mostly silent before the trial. More than a dozen Republican Senate offices declined or did not respond to requests for comment on Thursday about the House’s approval of an impeachment article, which accused Trump of inciting an insurrection and was supported by 10 House Republicans.
Democrats assess whether to bring witnesses, plan to discuss constitutional merits
House Democrats, recognizing that they need to convince at least 17 Republicans to agree to the conviction, are beginning to build their case internally. Among the issues they are trying to resolve: whether to bring in external witnesses, including Georgia’s Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger, whose interaction with Trump was cited in the impeachment article after the president pressured the Republican election official to “find” the votes needed to undo Joe Biden’s victory in the state.
“We will get answers as well as get some answers,” said Raskin on Wednesday night when asked if he would seek witnesses at the impeachment trial as he entered the suite of Mayor Nancy Pelosi.
Walter Jones, a spokesman for the Georgia secretary of state, did not say Thursday whether Raffensperger or another major election official, Gabriel Sterling, would be willing to testify at the trial.
“Our team is fully focused on the current session of the Georgia General Assembly at the moment,” Jones told CNN.
Raskin, a constitutional scholar, is expected to argue that there is ample precedent for the Senate to condemn a federal official after leaving office – a central case to convince some Republican Party senators, as Trump’s defense team must argue that. action is unconstitutional.
“Whether or not the Senate has constitutional authority to conduct an impeachment trial for a president who is no longer in office is debatable,” said Sen. Pat Toomey, a Pennsylvania Republican who has emerged as a leading Republican critic of post-election rhetoric. of Trump. “If the Senate conducts a trial, I will again fulfill my responsibility to consider the arguments of both House administrators and President Trump’s lawyers.”
There was never an impeachment trial for a former president, and Trump’s allies argued that the Senate has no constitutional authority to hold a trial for the president after he leaves office. The Senate has condemned only eight officials in history.
The Constitution, noted Vladeck, says that the Senate’s trial in cases of impeachment includes dismissal from office, as well as “disqualification from exercising and enjoying any office of honor, trust or profit under the United States”.
“This last clause is the key, because it makes it clear that the Senate has two decisions to make in cases of impeachment: first, it must decide whether an officer should be removed,” wrote Vladeck. “Next, he must decide whether that person should be disqualified from any future federal office. In fact, of the eight officers the Senate has already voted to remove, he subsequently voted to disqualify only three of them – reinforcing that removal and disqualification are separate investigations. . “
McConnell, in his statements about the oncoming trial, did not suggest that he thought it would be unconstitutional or that he would make any effort to stop the trial based on that. Still, Republicans, including McConnell, may end up being influenced by the arguments and may point to Trump’s status as a former president as a reason for not voting to condemn him.
In a memo obtained by CNN setting out the timetable for the impeachment, McConnell did not question whether the trial should take place. But he raised a question that still doesn’t have a clear answer: whether the president of the court, John Roberts, would preside as he did in Trump’s first impeachment trial.
“When an incumbent president is tried by the Senate, the Constitution requires the Chief Justice to preside over the trial. The Senate’s Impeachment Rules require the Senate to invite the Chief Justice to appear in the Senate and preside over the trial, ”wrote McConnell. “Normally, that invitation would be made on January 19. If the president of the court would actually preside over the trial after President Trump ceased to be president on January 20, however, it is not clear.”
Trump sees Republican Party support wane as Republicans look to the primaries
Even as the Republican Party’s support for Trump begins to deteriorate, many Republicans have to worry about political ramifications at home. A Republican Party source said an internal poll since election day saw Trump drop more than double digits among Republican voters across the country.
Still, Trump supporters must be a force in the Republican primaries – and how they vote for the sentencing is likely to set the tone for the electoral cycle.
The scenario is challenging for Senate Republicans, when they must defend 20 seats, against 14 for Democrats. Senate Republicans running for re-election who find Trump guilty can easily face primary opponents backed by Trump. Before the riots, Trump was already demanding a major challenge from the second Senate Republican, John Thune, of South Dakota, for saying that the president’s efforts to overturn the election would fail.
“You just have to take it easy,” said Thune, leaving the Capitol on the night of the disturbances, when asked if he was concerned about a major challenge. “It is a free country. I suspect that we will see a lot of activity in the next two years for some of our members – maybe including me. You just have to play the hand you have.”
While Trump has been significantly weakened politically in the aftermath of the unrest he has incited, there is still likely to be a loyal pro-Trump base in the Republican Party after he leaves office. Among those in the cycle being closely watched: Roy Blunt from Missouri, Rob Portman from Ohio and Todd Young from Indiana.
Many are keeping silent about how they can fall.
“I believe we need to wait and listen to the evidence,” said Alabama Sen. Richard Shelby, the 86-year-old Republican veteran who could retire instead of seeking re-election in 2022. “And as a juror, I would carefully consider the evidence presented.”
CNN’s Alex Rogers contributed to this report.