The prospects for nuclear power cool a decade after the collapse of Fukushima

Even a local anti-nuclear leader, Katsushi Hayashi, said he spent more time battling an unrelated railway in the mountains, confident that regulators and public opinion would not allow the plant to open anytime soon. “Fukushima has given us all the evidence we need. It’s dangerous, ”said Hayashi.

The triple collapse of Japanese nuclear reactors in Fukushima following the March 11, 2011 earthquake and tsunami marked a turning point in an industry that once dreamed of providing the world with almost unlimited energy.

A decade after Fukushima, only nine reactors in Japan are allowed to operate, compared with 54 a decade ago, and five of them are currently offline due to legal and other issues. All reactors in Fukushima Prefecture are permanently closed or configured to do so. Chubu Electric Power Co.

, owner of the Hamaoka factory, declined to provide an executive for comment. It has already formally applied for the reopening of two reactors at the plant and informed regulators that new measures, such as the wall, completed mainly in 2015, make them safe to operate.

Days after the collapse of 2011, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced the end of nuclear power in her country, and the final reactor is due to be withdrawn next year. The United States tightened regulations in response to Fukushima, and no reactor that began to be planned after 2011 is under construction. From Anglesey, Wales, to Uljin County, South Korea, long-planned projects have been disrupted due to security concerns and rising costs.

It is too early to say, however, that the Fukushima melts killed nuclear power everywhere. Instead, they divided the world between rich developed countries that are avoiding nuclear and a circle of developing countries, led by China, where the industry maintains hope for growth.

The number of nuclear reactors in operation globally stood at 408 on July 1, 2020, down from 437 just after the Fukushima collapse, as new openings fall short of closing in Japan, Germany and elsewhere, according to World Nuclear Industry Status Report, and operational capacity has changed little over the decades.

Nuclear power produces about a tenth of the world’s electricity, down from a peak of 17.5% a quarter of a century ago.

The global move towards reducing carbon emissions, symbolized by the Biden government’s decision to return to the Paris climate agreement, is a favorable wind for nuclear power in some places. The World Nuclear Association, an industry group that includes energy companies and nuclear plant builders, has about 50 reactors under construction worldwide, including 16 in China. Some nations like Canada are looking at a new generation of smaller reactors.

“I see a completely different picture in the last two or three years. We are beginning to see many countries around the world really engaged again in new nuclear weapons, ”said George Borovas, head of nuclear practice at the law firm Hunton Andrews Kurth, citing interest in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, among other places.

Before Fukushima, nuclear energy competed mainly with fossil fuels. Today, the battle is mostly with renewable sources, mainly solar and wind.

Mycle Schneider, a nuclear energy consultant who often criticizes the industry, said it made no sense to spend 10 or 15 years trying to build new nuclear plants, due to the ever-lower costs of renewable energy and batteries to store it.

“A large part of the nuclear fleet worldwide is not competitive with new renewable energies today,” said Schneider. “The industry was in trouble before 9/11” – the collapses of Fukushima – “and 9/11 drastically worsened the situation”.

He pointed to a government auction in Portugal last August, in which a winning bidder agreed to supply solar energy for just over 1 cent per kilowatt-hour, the amount of electricity needed to keep 10 100-watt bulbs running for an hour. . This compares to between 2.8 cents and 10 cents per kilowatt hour for nuclear power, according to a calculator from the International Energy Agency.

Renewable energies are not necessarily cheaper when the intermittency of the energy they produce is considered, say nuclear advocates. They also say that losing experience in nuclear science can have implications for the national security of Western countries and Japan, and they see value – for both consumers and local economies – in an energy source that can last up to 80 years.

“The best green jobs are in nuclear power because they are jobs for heads of households and they will take you through your entire career,” said Kristin Zaitz, an engineer who co-founded Mothers for Nuclear, a group of two women to defend the industry.

Nuclear power often loses to renewable energy in terms of cost because of heavy regulation, which increases construction and operating expenses. “It is already the safest way to produce reliable electricity. We can do a little more in terms of trying to keep them operating instead of overloading them with more regulations, ”said Ms. Zaitz.

That’s where Fukushima stands out, because the memories of radiation leaks there make the public, especially in Japan, resistant to arguments for a lighter regulatory touch. A 2019 survey by a pro-nuclear industry group revealed that 60% of Japanese respondents wanted to reduce or eliminate nuclear power.

Even Chubu Electric, owner of the unused nuclear plant, is not willing to openly defend the restart of its plant. In February, it published a leaflet and videos on the Internet publicizing the impregnability of the wall and the buildings of the waterproof reactor. The brochure did not mention the company’s request to restart reactors. “There are several ways to generate electricity, and none of them are perfect,” said the brochure.

Write to Peter Landers at [email protected]