For a decade, they were the indivisible pair that led the search for Scotland’s independence, bringing their party – and themselves – to power along the way.
But in politics few friendships last forever, and that of Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon and his predecessor and mentor Alex Salmond has not aged well – to the point that his collapse now threatens the independence movement just when his prospects seemed more promising.
The two Scottish National Party giants are caught in a bitter feud over the treatment of the charges against Salmond that culminated in 2020, when he was tried on more than a dozen counts of sexual assault and found innocent on all counts.
The split is so violent that some believe the fate of Scotland’s 314-year union with England could be in a dispute over what Sturgeon knew about the charges and whether she told the truth.
“For the SNP, it’s very serious,” said James Mitchell, professor of public policy at the University of Edinburgh, who pointed to the Scottish Parliament elections in May, and Sturgeon’s hopes of gains to justify demands for a second Scottish independence referendum.
“This happened at a time when the SNP should have good electoral results and when support for independence is at its peak,” said Professor Mitchell. “In these circumstances, it would be expected that the party would unite, while, in fact, it was not so disunited in decades.”
The case is so explosive because Salmond says Sturgeon deceived Scottish lawmakers about his role and did not give a true account of how she handled the charges against him. If that were true, it would lead to resignations.
Ms. Sturgeon denies the allegations and says people close to her ex-friend and mentor are selling conspiracy theories while making contradictory claims against her.
But, like all the worst arguments, this is personal.
Salmond feels that his reputation has been destroyed by the charges against him, which dated back to his time as prime minister before 2014, and included a charge of attempted rape.
Some of his supporters think that Ms. Sturgeon simply threw him to the wolves during a failed internal investigation of him in 2018 (well before the police were involved), in her zeal to show zero tolerance for sexual harassment.
Others theorize that she actively wanted him out of the way to avoid his return to politics as a potential rival.
Ruth Davidson, the leader of Scottish conservatives, spoke of a “cover-up within the government”, and the dispute involved Peter Murrell, the SNP’s chief executive, who is also married to Sturgeon.
With two separate investigations underway – amid allegations that the evidence is being suppressed and a legal battle for press freedom – the bewildering complexity and endless twists and turns of the case have had no significant impact on public opinion so far, according to with John Curtice, a research specialist and professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde.
In terms of allegations of conspiracy, “the tail was not attached to the donkey,” he said.
However, he also noted that support for independence has stagnated in recent weeks. “It has long been obvious that the most serious risk for the SNP to succeed in the May elections is the SNP itself,” said Professor Curtice.
This is partly due to the fact that internal struggles have divided the SNP into war camps, exposing other divisions within a party that was once known for its rigid unity – for example, about how patient it must be in the search for a second referendum. of independence.
In a reshuffle earlier this month, Joanna Cherry, a high-level legislator in the British Parliament, was stripped of her role as a spokesman for internal affairs and justice, in what many saw as a factional purge of Sturgeon’s critics.
Critics of Sturgeon also include Jim Sillars, a veteran of the independence movement who once clashed with Salmond, but now sees his successor as the problem.
“The mentality in the higher spheres of the SNP is like the divine right of kings: they think that no one can touch them,” said Sillars.
“This group has been in power for 14 years, they enjoyed the elixir of power, they don’t want to give up,” he added. “They thought Salmond could be a threat and therefore decided to kill him.”
Things were going well for Sturgeon after a series of opinion polls showed that most Scots were in favor of independence. His approval ratings in Scotland far exceed those of Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson, whose upper-class English mannerisms tend to irritate Scots.
And while the coronavirus crisis was as severe in Scotland as it was in England, Sturgeon’s serious manner and polite presentation won his applause, in contrast to Johnson’s flustered personality, especially in the early stages of the pandemic.
Many of Mrs. Sturgeon’s skills were learned from Mr. Salmond, a passionate, formidable, sometimes harsh debater who was the SNP’s leader twice, from 1990 to 2000 and from 2004 to 2014.
After constitutional changes reinstated the Scottish Parliament in 1999, Salmond oversaw the SNP’s transformation from an impotent group of lawmakers in Westminster to the dominant political force in Edinburgh.
Scottish nationalism was renamed progressive and inclusive, and the party leaned a little to the left, favoring European integration, which it had previously opposed, and receiving immigrants from the bloc.
Mr. Salmond first noticed Mrs. Sturgeon’s talent when she was a student; as she once said, “he believed in me long before i believed in myself”.
In 2004, Salmond dissuaded her from waging a leadership battle that she was convinced she would lose and instead returned to her main job with Sturgeon as her deputy.
Sturgeon’s next opportunity came in 2014, after the Scots rejected independence in a referendum, prompting Salmond to resign as SNP prime minister and leader. Until then, Mrs. Sturgeon had established herself as her inevitable successor.
But tensions between the new leader and his predecessor increased after he won re-election to the British Parliament in 2015.
Nor did they diminish when Salmond lost his seat again in the 2017 general election and found new ways to get attention, staging a solo show at the Edinburgh Fringe festival and hosting a TV chat show on RT, the network formerly known as Russia today .
“He couldn’t let him go and she wasn’t going to find him a role,” said Professor Mitchell. “She’s a control freak in the way she runs the party, just like he does. They are very similar; there would always be a problem. “
It is not yet known how big this problem will be. Professor Curtice thinks it is likely that Mrs. Sturgeon will survive the storm and resist any resignation request. Given her strong management of the coronavirus pandemic, she could probably survive, even if she was considered to have broken some ministerial rules.
But Professor Mitchell thinks that Sturgeon could be seriously hampered by rivalry with Salmond, who is starting to change public perception.
“Things are starting to change in Scotland,” said Professor Mitchell, referring to the growing scrutiny of Sturgeon’s account of events. He said Salmond “was the villain in the play, but now people are asking questions.”
As for Salmond, he may be over politically, but he has a mission to restore his reputation, and that makes him a dangerous enemy, said Professor Mitchell.
“The problem for her,” said Professor Mitchell, “is that he has nothing to lose.”