CLAIM
COVID-19 cases “decreased by 50%” and “daily vaccinations increased by 85%” since “Biden took office”
DETAILS
Lack of context: The claim suggested that the public health situation would have been different if Joe Biden had not taken office by comparing trends in the COVID-19 and vaccination cases from the day of the inauguration until the day of publication and alluding to Biden’s competence. However, the claim did not analyze the trends before Biden’s inauguration, which showed that they were similar before he took office.
Inaccurate fact: According to official US CDC data, the daily number of vaccinations has increased by 60% since Biden’s tenure, not by 85%.
LEAD FROM THE KEY
The daily number of new COVID-19 cases in the United States dropped dramatically in January 2021. The COVID-19 vaccination campaign has been steadily increasing since mid-December 2020. These data alone do not provide evidence that Joe Biden is assuming an impact, as the reduction in the number of new COVID-19 cases and the increase in the number of COVID-19 vaccinations began weeks before Biden took office. The new presidency, although it is not expected to have any significant effects in the first weeks after the inauguration, can materialize in the coming months and years.
COMPLETE COMPLAINT: COVID-19 cases “decreased by 50%” and “daily vaccinations increased by 85%” since “Biden took office”
REVIEW
The COVID-19 pandemic that has swept the United States since the beginning of 2020 has caused nearly 28 million identified cases and 500,000 deaths in the country. In the midst of this major health crisis, the United States saw a major political change with the inauguration of Joe Biden on January 20, 2021, succeeding Donald Trump as President of the United States.
The claims of significant improvement in the number of cases of COVID-19 or vaccination rates circulated on social networks, attributing the merit to the new administration. For example, this post from Occupy Democrats or this post from The Other 98% claimed that the number of new COVID-19 cases dropped by 50% and the number of daily vaccinations has increased by 85% since Biden took office. Although the data confirms that these trends are present, the numbers in the first example do not correspond to the official numbers. Furthermore, such allegations are misleading, as they do not compare trends in the number of new COVID-19 cases and vaccination rates before and after President Biden’s inauguration.
The daily number of new cases of COVID-19 decreased significantly in January 2021 and the number of vaccinations increased
The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report trends in the daily number of newly identified COVID-19 cases (Figure 1). From January 20, 2021 – the day Biden was sworn in – to February 16, 2021, when the Occupy Democrats meme was published, the average daily number of new cases dropped steadily from 193,481 to 81,406 cases per day. This means that 4,000 fewer cases were identified on average each day during that 28-day period. Overall, this represents a decrease of 58%, which is not far from the 50% mentioned in the meme.
Figure 1. New identified COVID-19 cases reported by the CDC on February 19, 2021. The blue bars represent the number of COVID-19 cases confirmed each day. The red curve represents the 7-day moving average. Using a 7-day moving average helps to smooth out day-to-day variations. The vertical black line marks the inauguration of Joe Biden.
However, the number of new cases is of little relevance if not seen in context with the number of tests performed. In fact, significantly reducing the number of tests would automatically reduce the number of reported cases. Therefore, it is important to also observe the rate of positivity along with the number of cases. The positivity rate is the percentage of COVID-19 diagnostic tests that returned a positive result.
Johns Hopkins University gathered data from 56 U.S. states and territories and graphed the rate of positivity in these regions over time (Figure 2). The positivity rate decreased sharply in 2021, from 9.7% on January 20, 2021 to 5.5% on February 16, 2021, or a 43% reduction. Based on this analysis, there is a genuine decrease in cases and the decrease is not simply due to changes in the number of tests performed.
Figure 2. Trends in the positivity rate of COVID-19 over time, reported by Johns Hopkins University on February 19, 2021. The number of COVID-19 diagnostic tests performed each day are represented in light orange and those that positive results returned in dark orange. The proportion of positive tests, or rate of positivity, is shown as a blue curve.
However, the daily number of vaccinations cited in the declaration is less accurate. The CDC also shows the number of vaccinations performed per day (Figure 3). Due to important day-to-day variations – for example, there are fewer vaccinations taking place on Sundays – it is important to focus on the seven-day continuous average (red line) instead of daily counts.
The available average figures stop on February 13, 2021. As the CDC explained, data for the most recent days are incomplete and still need to be consolidated. During the 25-day period from January 20, 2021 to February 13, 2021, the daily number of vaccinations increased from 965,982 to 1,543,466 doses, an increase of 60%. Although the positive trend in vaccinations is clear, the number of 60% is very different from the 85% mentioned in the claims.
Figure 3. Daily number of vaccinations performed each day reported by the CDC, as of February 19. The light blue bars represent the number of doses administered each day. The dark blue bars represent incomplete data: there is a delay in reporting the doses administered, which means that the most recent days are still underreported. The red line represents the 7-day moving average, which makes it possible to smooth out day-to-day variations.
In general, the allegations are accurate in stating that the number of new COVID-19 cases has dropped and the number of vaccinations has steadily increased since the day President Biden took office. However, analysis of the CDC data shows that the actual figures cited in these claims are inaccurate.
The increase in the number of vaccinations and the fall in the cases of COVID-19 started before President Biden took office
The allegations strongly suggest that trends in new cases of COVID-19 and vaccination are linked to Biden’s policies, using the day of his inauguration as a point of reference. This is apparent in this meme congratulating Biden and referring to his competence.
However, to properly assess whether President Biden’s inauguration had an impact on these numbers, it would be necessary to compare the variation in COVID-19 cases before and after Biden took office. When we carried out this analysis, we found that the observed trends started before January 20, 2021.
CDC data showed that the number of new daily cases of COVID-19 began to drop on January 13, 2021, a week before the inauguration (Figure 1). During that week, the daily number of new COVID-19 cases decreased from 243,799 to 193,481, meaning that 6,289 fewer cases were identified each day. In fact, the rate of reduction in cases was faster a week before the inauguration than during the period between January 20 and February 16, 2021.
The positivity data from Johns Hopkins University showed a similar pattern, with positivity already decreasing since January 8, 2021 (Figure 2).
This phenomenon is even clearer when it comes to vaccination. As shown by the CDC data, the 7-day continuous average daily vaccinations has steadily increased since December 14, 2021. As mentioned earlier in this review, the daily number of vaccinations increased by 60% during the 25-day post-tenure period. President Biden. However, it actually increased 278% over a similar 25-day period, just before the inauguration, from December 27, 2020 to January 20, 2021.
It is not surprising that the daily number of vaccinations increased rapidly in the early stages of the vaccination campaign, but decreased when the vaccination operation reached full capacity. Therefore, the slower pace at which vaccinations were carried out does not mean that vaccination efforts have weakened since Biden’s tenure. But it cannot be suggested that the increase in daily vaccination since January 20 is causally associated with Biden’s possession.
In summary, COVID-19 cases are declining sharply in the US, while the daily vaccination rate for COVID-19 is steadily increasing. However, the numbers reported in the viral Facebook memes we analyzed above are inconsistent with the CDC data. In addition, the data available so far do not support the claim that the trends observed in the daily number of new cases and the number of vaccinations are causally associated with possession of Biden. The drop in the number of new cases and the increase in the number of vaccinations had already started before his inauguration, at a similar or even higher rate.