Vice President Pence is in the first class of 2024 GOP contenders as the Trump era draws to a close.
The firm expectation across the Republican Party is that Pence will be a candidate in 2024, unless Trump runs again.
A Pence candidacy would have clear assets. Pence has served Trump loyally over the past four years, although his personal behavior is far removed from that of the president.
Theoretically, this would allow Pence to maintain the Trump base and at the same time have a more expansive appeal. Pence’s supporters believe he could do better with college-educated white suburban voters who parted ways with Trump, with electorally decisive effects, in the November election.
But there are many who doubt the GOP when it comes to Pence’s chances of winning too.
Skeptics question every pillar of the pro-Pence argument.
They doubt their chance to bring Trump voters to their side in the Republican primaries, especially if other candidates are competing for the same range of voters.
Pence’s chances of holding “MAGA Country” against more colorful figures like Sen. Ted Cruz
Rafael (Ted) Edward CruzGeorge Clooney calls Trump ‘a charismatic carnival bum’ Barr leaves behind a conflicting legacy at DOJ Sen. elected Tuberville suggests he will support efforts in the Electoral College’s voting challenge MORE (R-Texas) or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
Ron DeSantisOusted Florida health scientist asks the state to return the equipment seized in Florida’s DeSantis attack to prioritize seniors for the next doses of vaccine. (R), are average at best, they say.
On the other hand, while Pence’s deep roots in the evangelical movement are an advantage in the Republican primaries, his socially conservative tendency to Christianity may limit his appeal to moderate voters.
It is questionable whether university-educated suburban people will join a man with a deeply conservative view of LGBT issues and who refuses to dine alone with any woman other than his wife.
More broadly, there is the question of whether Pence really has the charisma and enthusiasm to successfully mount his own presidential candidacy.
He won six terms as a congressman in Indiana and one term as governor of the state. But his performance in that state election in 2012 was not spectacular. He won his race by 3 points on the same day, the GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney
Willard (Mitt) Mitt RomneyBipartisan, bicameral group urges Trump to sign the COVID-19 relief package Trump’s pardons expose another gap in the US legal system Approval of the aid bill triggers a struggle to declare victory, blame MORE took Indiana by almost 9 points.
“It is going to be a congested field and it has not impressed anyone. He didn’t really stand out, ”said a Republican Party strategist who asked to remain anonymous to openly discuss Pence’s chances.
Casting doubts on Pence’s ability to recreate Trump’s support coalition, this strategist added: “He is not a populist. He was put on fine because he is a conservative Christian – that’s where his path is. But Ted Cruz came very close to winning the last time and cannot be ruled out. So Pence has to prove that he can beat Ted at his own game, which is not easy to do. ”
Pence’s ambitions at the White House are silenced because of the complexities of the present moment.
Trump continues to falsely insist that he won this year’s election.
Pence, in turn, has sought to support the boss, without going too far into the specifics of what should be done.
At a conference by the young conservative group Turning Point USA on Tuesday, Pence insisted that the “electoral dispute continues” and that the Trump team “would continue to fight until every legal vote was counted. We will continue to fight until all illegal votes are eliminated. ”
Despite such public proclamations of support, however, Axios reported on Tuesday that Trump was unhappy with several people in his inner circle – including Pence, who the president allegedly felt “was not fighting hard enough for him”.
All of which makes it impossible for Pence to explicitly position himself for 2024.
Many Republicans say it is important not to underestimate Pence’s chances.
“It all depends on whether Donald Trump
Donald Trump Powell says White House advisers will not let her help Trump Judge reject the Republican Party’s lawsuit to close Georgia polls after business hours Bipartisan, bicameral group urges Trump to sign the COVID-19 relief package MORE runs, but obviously [Pence] has the support of social conservatives and fiscal conservatives – besides being Donald Trump’s vice president for four years is a real bonus, ”said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “He is a very strong candidate.”
Matt Mackowiak, president of the Republican Party in Texas, said he believed Pence “will be an important factor in 2024. He has a national profile and will be able to raise money. He may be able to maintain much of the Trump base while extending it more widely. “
There are other complications for Pence, however. He was the main government figure on the coronavirus task force. The White House’s response to the pandemic has been widely criticized, and while most of the blame has been blamed on Trump, Pence’s involvement could be a risk.
The Republican Party strategist who wanted to remain anonymous also pointed out that loyalty to Trump will likely only get any candidate from 2024 so far, given that other figures who serve or have served in the administration must also run.
State Secretary Mike Pompeo
Mike PompeoPompeo’s wife tested positive for COVID-19: Pompeo report: US will establish diplomatic post in Western Sahara’s contested Trump administration advances bomb sales to Saudis MORE and former US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley
Nimrata (Nikki) HaleyPat Robertson says Trump lives in an ‘alternative reality’ and Biden will be President Lara Trump, leading Republicans in 2022, North Carolina Senate poll The Memo: Trump casts a long shadow over 2024 MORE are two of the most mentioned names.
“I think Pence will run, but the race will have Haley, it will have Pompeo,” said the strategist.
“It would be like the end of the presidency of Bush and Condoleezza Rice, Dick Cheney and Don Rumsfeld running.”
The Memo is a column reported by Niall Stanage.