Liverpool appear to be out of the Premier League title race. Realistically, they will not defend their 2019-20 crown *. Instead, they are in the middle of a fight to finish in the top four and win a spot in the Champions League next season, and in good shape it would be difficult to consider them favorites.
While fans always wait for the miraculous, Liverpool should end the season with between 66 and 76 points. With Manchester City resurfacing and the form of Manchester United looking irritatingly sustainable, even the upper part of that wouldn’t put them in the title mix, and no matter how you decide things, the Reds seem more likely to finish fifth or sixth than first or second.
Liverpool’s form since the 2019-20 restart
We will start by analyzing the results since the 2019-20 season restart. Since then, the Reds have played 28 league games. They won 14, drew nine and lost five. It’s a good record of 1.82 points per game – the fourth best in the league, just behind the third best Tottenham. Over a season of 38 games it is a pace of 69 points, a quarter to sixth place ends in most years.
With low results for all the best teams since the restart, however, a pace of 69 points since then has the Reds as fourth best in the league and millimeters from the third. It’s not great and it hardly defies the title, but it’s not the end of the world. A step back, but if the recent bad results are not the new normal, a step back that should still take this record group into the Champions League next season and with it the chance to strengthen, recover and return.
In comparison, Tottenham has been at a pace of 1.89 points since the restart, which means around 72 points per season. In front of them is Manchester United. A kind of mockery for many before the break and sometimes even later, as when they left the Champions League in December, their form in the league since the restart is legitimately a challenge to the title – 2.18 points per game that would yield 83 points over over a season.
Therefore, it is not news that Manchester City is in first place – but not by much, with a rhythm of 2.21 points per game that is worth 84 points in a season. On the other side and behind Liverpool, the surprising Southampton is in fifth place with a pace of 1.74 points, good for 66 points per season, and then Everton, Chelsea and Leicester, all at the same pace for a season of 64 points.
Looking at the form since the 2019-20 restart, we have:
- Manchester City at the pace of 84 points
- Manchster United at the pace of 83 points
- Tottenham at the pace of 72 points
- Liverpool at the pace of 69 points
Liverpool form in the 2020-21 season
Looking only at this season on their own, the Reds reached 68 points – a number hampered by the recent form and which is also confirmed before the recent series of poor results, Jürgen Klopp’s team had improved in their 2019-20 stumbles restart. Before the last five games, Liverpool were playing well enough to deservedly lead the league in a strange season.
Still, whether you combine your last five games with the first 14 or look until the 2019-20 restart, you get very similar numbers: 68 or 69 points. It may simply be that, without fans and after the Champions League and Premier League titles, this is the inevitable downfall of a tired and injured group.
However, unlike when you return to the restart, when looking at the rest of the league just this season, 68 or 69 points don’t matter – anyone is good for just sixth place.
Looking only at this season’s results:
- Manchester City are on pace to 80 points
- Manchester United are on pace to 80 points
- Leicester City are on pace to 76 points
- Everton are on pace to 72 points
- Tottenham are on pace to 70 points.
Behind those five and Liverpool in sixth, Chelsea and Southampton dropped a bit by leaving out the 2019-20 restart, while West Ham made their way into the mix.
Liverpool’s form in the last ten games
Finally, the recent form table. Looking at the last ten games says almost the same thing – albeit with West Ham usurping Tottenham’s place outside the Champions League and City showing signs of returning to their best form. Therefore, in the last ten games, City returned to their best and at a pace of 99 points. Liverpool are in sixth place with 65 points.
After having played half a season, however, the question is where the teams would end if they kept their current pace on the table the rest of the way.
Designing the recent form for the rest of the season:
- Manchester City are on pace to 90 points
- Manchester United are on pace to 86 points
- Leicester City are on pace to 76 points
- Everton are on pace to 72 points
Out of the top four, Liverpool and West Ham would both end with 66 on the basis of their recent form and points so far, while Tottenham would finish with 65.
Probable best scenario in Liverpool
As this is a Liverpool site, we will also consider what will happen if the Reds rediscover their pre-Christmas form of 2020-21 – starting when they play against Tottenham. If they do they add up to 42 more points and, added to the 34 they have won so far, they finish with the 76 points mentioned at the beginning. That would be good for third place alongside Leicester in their current form. And that, a rediscovery of its prenatal form, seems probably the best scenario.
In all, it probably also tells us where to expect the Reds to end the season: with an upper limit of 76 points and a third place, a lower limit of 66 points, and most likely it will end around 68 or 69 points. In the meantime, it looks like the league’s fourth-placed player will earn between 69 and 72 points – hardly inspiring confidence.
However, as difficult as it may seem, it would be foolish to dismiss Jürgen Klopp and this group. Realistically, they are now out of the title race *. They will not defend their 2019-20 crown. But it seems much more reasonable to hope that they can at least rediscover their prenatal form and, with that, probably reach the top four.
* I will still go into every game starting with Tottenham next week thinking that Liverpool can win and if that happens it means 91 points and probably beat City.