Rumors about Apple making its own EV came back on the scene last week with a Reuters report on production possibly starting in 2024. Sources said Apple has an innovative monocell battery in the works and more. However, Apple’s trusted analyst, Ming-Chi Kuo, made a special note about the Apple Car that says the market is “very optimistic about the Apple Car” and that 2025 would be as early as we could see the vehicle launch. and realistically says, 2028 or later is possible.
Kuo cites three main issues with the Apple Car: uncertainty about launch time, uncertainty about the supplier and vehicle specifications, and uncertainty about Apple’s competitiveness in the market for electric and autonomous vehicles.
Apple Car launch delayed?
Kuo’s note highlights that he previously predicted that the Apple Car could have been launched in 2023-2025, but that his latest research shows that this has delayed, perhaps even significantly. The latest research by Kuo indicates that even if development continues this year and everything “goes well”, a launch could happen between 2025-2027. However, based on Apple standards, the rapid changes in the electric and automotive vehicle industry, Kuo “would not be surprised” if the Apple Car did not arrive by “2028 or later”.
Kuo also believes that Apple car specifications are still evolving since the first launch would be in 2025 – or possibly much later and that – and the final specifications will not be defined until 2023-2025.
Reuters reports mentioned that Apple’s car delays “could push production start-up to 2025 or more”. However, analysts at Morgan Stanley released a report last week supporting a possible start of production around the four-year mark, suggested by Reuters sources.
Apple Challenges
Kuo warns investors that while Apple has several strengths when it comes to dealing with an EV, “it is not always successful in new business.” He gives the example of HomePod and Apple not being able to capture a large chunk of the smart speaker market (it also says that Apple’s smart speaker development has been “temporarily suspended”).
Playing catching
In the big picture, Kuo notes that competition in the EV and space for autonomous cars is fierce and that you cannot assume that Apple will succeed. Crucial aspects will be autonomous data and AI instead of hardware and one of Kuo’s big concerns is that Apple may be 5 years or more behind in this realm of deep learning compared to Tesla, Waymo and more.
Notably, Morgan Stanley is embracing Kuo’s opposite view of the Apple Car, for the time being, with the former believing that Apple is in a place to “bring innovations in autonomy and renewable technology”.
And with another view, Goldman Sachs analysts believe that Apple is more interested in the car experience.
Returning to Kuo, he also states in his new report that the “Apple car concept stocks” that have emerged are pure speculation and have nothing to do with real Apple car suppliers.
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