In a recent research note, Apple’s trusted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo wrote that the tech giant could postpone the launch of its electric car until 2028 or later. Kuo has been dubbed “the most accurate Apple analyst in the world” and may have more information about the Apple Car project.
According MacRumorsTF Securities’ Kuo noted that it is too early to get excited about the Apple car. He estimated that Apple’s electric vehicle could be launched by 2025-2027, at the very least, if all goes well. Otherwise, a 2028 or later launch may be more feasible.
“We predicted in a previous report that Apple will launch the Apple Car in 2023–2025 […] However, our latest research indicates that the current Apple Car development schedule is unclear and, if development starts this year and everything goes well, it will be launched in 2025–2027 at the very least. Due to changes in the electric vehicle / motor vehicle market and Apple’s high quality standards, we would not be surprised if the Apple Car launch schedule was postponed to 2028 or later, ”wrote Kuo.
He noted that Apple has competitive advantages, but has had difficulty launching successful new businesses before. Kuo cited examples of Apple products that have not managed to become a huge success so far, such as HomePod and HomePod mini. He also explained that the company has a lot to do with regard to autonomous driving data.
“The market has high expectations for the Apple Car. Still, we remind investors that while Apple has a variety of competitive advantages, it is not always successful in new business. For example, Apple has failed to enter the smart speaker market. Demand for HomePod and HomePod mini was less than expected, and the development of new models of smart speakers has been temporarily suspended. Competition in the EV / autonomous car market is more fierce than in smart speakers, so we think it is dangerous to come to the conclusion that the Apple Car will succeed, ”he wrote.
“If Apple Car wants to succeed in the future, the main success factor is big data / AI, not hardware. One of our biggest concerns about the Apple Car is that when the Apple Car comes out, the current autonomous car brands will have accumulated at least five years of big data and will be conducive to deep learning / AI. How does Apple, a laggard, overcome this gap? “
The Apple analyst believes the market is “overly optimistic” about the Apple car schedule and has advised investors to avoid buying shares related to the company’s electric passenger car design. Kuo is considered a trusted analyst at Apple because of his close ties to the tech giant’s supply chain. So far, he has accurately predicted the 11-inch MacBook Air, the 3D Touch feature of the iPhone 6S, the size, screen and glass bottom of the iPhone X, and the iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro line variants, among others.
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