Anthony Davis will miss the next few weeks as he recovers from a calf strain and Achilles tendinosis, but his absence will only aggravate a problem that already existed for the Lakers. They are making almost three fewer shots in the restricted area per game than they did a year ago, and opponents are shooting more than two percentage points more than last season. They slipped a little on the offensive glass, they are not reaching the line as often and they are not blocking so many shots. In short, they are, well, short. At least compared to last season, the Lakers are small and losing Davis only makes them smaller.
This is not exactly an obstacle for the Lakers. It is the main benefit of having Anthony Davis in the first place. Either way, most teams go into the playoffs, and Davis allows the Lakers to do that without sacrificing too much in the way of rim protection, rebounds or internal scoring. But it quietly became a problem in the regular season. Oklahoma City Thunder pushed the Lakers into overtime twice in the same week, scoring 126 points in both games. Suffice it to say that there are much better big men in the NBA than Al Horford, and several are arriving on the Lakers’ schedule.
The Lakers will face Karl-Anthony Towns, Bam Adebayo and Rudy Gobert in their next five games. They will follow this stretch with a brutal string of All-Star guards who will have no trouble getting to the basket: Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, Devin Booker, Chris Paul and De’Aaron Fox. The Lakers have so far managed to survive without Davis. His 4-1 record in games he lost helped keep them less than 1.5 Utah Jazz games for the Western Conference champion.
But the schedule is about to get harder and recovering the top seed is especially important this season. The home team wins about 80% of games 7, and the idea of playing in Salt Lake City, even with a healthy squad and significantly more playoff experience, would be scary under normal circumstances. Doing this in a condensed season, possibly coming out of an exhaustive runoff war with the Clippers? It is less than ideal, to say the least. The regular season will not stop without Davis, so the Lakers will be forced to try to gain ground without their big star.
The problem they will encounter is that finding even a short-term replacement for it will be extremely difficult. The Lakers technically have an empty spot in the squad, but at this point, they cannot legally fill it. The hiring of Montrezl Harrell and Wes Matthews in this off-season generated a strict cap for the Lakers on the $ 138.9 million apron. They entered the season so close to that line that they had to wait until the prorated minimum wage fell before they could sign another player. That won’t happen until February 24, which means that the Lakers are still more than a week away from signing a free agent, unless they give up the unsecured Quinn Cook.
Negotiation is also unlikely. Concerns about the hard cap remain, but there is also the corresponding salary component of any business that makes it difficult. The overwhelming majority of the Lakers’ cast is cheap. Only five players win more than $ 3.7 million. LeBron James is untouchable. Davis too. The trio of Dennis Schroder, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Montrezl Harrell play essential roles in the rotation. The Lakers simply do not have an easily mobile salary ready for a trade. Of the 14 players in their squad, 11 are active members of the rotation and there is no point in deflecting for a quick jolt of relief in the middle of the season. Jared Dudley is very important for the locker room to be discarded. That leaves Cook and Alfonzo McKinnie, who earn a pittance and have little commercial value.
So, what does all this mean? Well, help may come through a free agent subscription in February, but more likely, the Lakers will wait and assess Davis’ health. The negotiation deadline is not until March 25, and Davis should be back on the court, preventing any setbacks. If he does, the Lakers can afford to be a little more selective and look for buying targets that improve the list as it currently exists.
What if he doesn’t? So the Lakers may need to be a little more aggressive. Waiting until the procurement market starts completely at the end of March would mean sacrificing a month of potential minutes for a February subscription, but it would probably mean adding a better player. The players available before the deadline are largely those who did not sign in the off-season. After that, veterans looking for new homes and commercial wreckage create a more robust market.
The Lakers are more likely to play this patiently. This is the leeway created by the use of LeBron James. They may feel more comfortable with the idea of winning a game 7 on the road than typical teams. They are unlikely to feel particularly inclined to rush a change when a better one is available later. This approach could reward them with a better playoff list, but it could mean some tough times ahead. The Lakers without Davis is one of the smaller teams in the NBA. The schedule has been generous lately. It won’t be for long.