Jon Lester’s six-year contract with the Chicago Cubs has ended, and I don’t think anyone – honestly speaking – would have told you in November that he was definitely will return in 2021. Lester was about to turn 37, we knew that the Cubs were looking to make big changes, we knew that there would be a lot of spending, we also knew that Lester’s performance was declining. So, I don’t want to define it as saying that Lester’s signing with the Nationals last night was a shocking moment, of change in the land, from line drawing in the sand to the off-season. It was not.
But for sure feel as it was for many people, especially considering how important Lester has been to the organization and how much he wanted to return to the Cubs in 2021. We’ve talked about this concept before: sometimes there are things that go beyond the final question of “this movement helps you win a fraction of an additional game? ” Sometimes you just need to assess how much a change is worth to the fan base, to future players, to the relationships you hope to maintain and to the things you intend to defend as an organization. Again, I’m not saying that everything means that the Cubs should have signed Lester again without question, but (1) I can understand why he lands there for some people and (2) it’s fair to be considered, even if you decide that the baseball aspect pushes it in the other direction.
Besides that? It’s not like Lester has a monster contract that would be indefensible to the Cubs.
Jon Lester’s deal with the Nationals is well in the range you would expect from him, with the Nationals doing what they always do (DEFERRRRRRR), which makes the current value around $ 4.75 million:
Well, beginner Jon Lester’s hopes for a final season for the #Cubs it certainly couldn’t was not about the money. He signed a $ 5 million one-year contract with #Nats it will pay him only $ 2 million this year. He also receives a $ 3 million deferred signing bonus payable in 2023.
– Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) January 19, 2021
It’s $ 4.75 million more for Lester in this market for the baseball value does it provide to the Cubs? Maybe yes. Maybe they know him better and believe he is a bad bet to be a useful 4/5 this year. This may even outweigh the club and leadership value it offers (which, by the way, is also baseball value, because it can impact other players in ways you can’t fully design). But then again, it’s not like it’s too much money that anyone who criticizes the Cubs’ decision here is simply wrong.
In addition, Lester would have taken less from the Cubs – Dave Kaplan and Gordon Wittenmyer indicate that Lester would have accepted a deal of $ 4 million (or less) from the Cubs at the beginning of the off-season.
Wittenmyer went even further in his description of the property, absolutely illuminating the Cubs:
By @GDubCub: The Cubs spent 108 years becoming a joke until they finally won the 2016 championship. It took them four years to become a joke again.https: //t.co/rjoi7msAp7
– Cubs Talk (@NBCSCubs) January 19, 2021
Similarly, Patrick Mooney sees the overall decline of the Cubs organization:
It’s hard to see how Cubs are a better organization without Jon Lester, Theo Epstein, Kyle Schwarber, Yu Darvish and the more than 100 employees who were laid off in 2020, writes @PJ_Mooney: https: //t.co/lZRBiBbUIQ
– The Athletic Chicago (@TheAthleticCHI) January 19, 2021
As a fan, I wish it had happened differently. I wish there was a real chance that Lester would go back to the Cubs, to get another goodbye, to retire with the Cubs if he wanted to. And, most of all, I would like to not feel that all of this was not just another reflection of a baseball office that was informed that it cannot spend a cent. Apparently, they made an offer to Lester, but it “didn’t come close” to the Nationals’ offer. The money to bring back a Cubs legend just doesn’t exist.
That said, I have to offer the other side of this thing, because sometimes you decide it’s time to move on, regardless of the money. In the case of the Cubs, the argument would be as follows: we don’t know how strong we will be in 2021, but we would like to have tickets available to give our youngsters not enough-know-what-they-could-be-starters a look (you can only rate them if you really have tickets to give). We would also like a chance, the argument would go, to give input to younger types of low buyback and recovery that may offer greater risk, but more advantages in 2021 (at a lower cost), and a chance to contribute in 2022 and beyond as well. And with the few million in savings, we could also add a left defender. As you wish.
That would be the argument.
It is not terrible. I’m trying to divorce the individual player fandom for a moment, and look at 2022+. If the Cubs are going to have a quick reboot, this will not only require moves that bring long-term acquisitions, but it will also require surprising disruptions this year to find out what you have in the next off-season (when, if you’re really trying for a quick return, you will spend some gd money again). So, you only have one season to play in order to better understand what you have internally – how the guys developed during the stoppage year and how their stuff will really play against the big league hitter. The group we’re talking about (Tyson Miller, Cory Abbott, Keegan Thompson, Justin Steele, etc.) are not the best candidates. The types of buy-low and bounce-back we’re talking about (Shelby Miller and maybe a little more certain than that, but not much) are not big bets for success. But if this year is going to be hard work anyway, you may as well get some valuable training out of that.
So, anyway. It hurt to know that Lester wanted to return to the Cubs, and he probably would have done so for even less than the modest amount he received from the Nationals. It also says a lot of unpleasant things about the state of the organization. All the good points, and I credit them. I feel them, to some extent, too. But I also see the value – it may be small, but there is – in choosing to enter the major league in 2021 for pitchers other than Jon Lester.