Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) is about to cross the finish line of the coronavirus vaccine race. But the screams may not be as loud as they were for rivals Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Modern (NASDAQ: MRNA). That’s because the big pharmaceutical company reported lower efficacy than its previous rivals.
So this is bad news … right? Not necessarily. First, we have to put the effectiveness data in context. That means watching how the coronavirus pandemic evolved. New strains in the UK, Brazil and South Africa gained ground with the Johnson & Johnson test. And, second, we must focus on the big positive factor that can result in a large market share for Johnson & Johnson. Let’s look more closely.
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Facing new variants
When Pfizer and Moderna reported data late last year, we were looking to see if the vaccine candidates could handle the original coronavirus strain. Both proved to be more than 94% effective. Johnson & Johnson – and other reports now and in the future – are in a different situation. Their vaccines were also against the new variants. But, like Pfizer and Moderna, these companies developed their vaccines to attack the original virus. All of this means that we should not be surprised if its effectiveness is less than that of Pfizer e Moderna.
The Johnson & Johnson trial covered several regions and the company separated the effectiveness rates accordingly. This makes it easier to examine your performance against variants. The vaccine produced 72% effectiveness in the USA, 66% effectiveness in Latin America and 57% in South Africa. New strains are increasing in the USA. But the strain of Brazil gained space in Latin America. And the South African strain originated in South Africa. This probably explains – at least a little – why the candidate vaccine has shown less effectiveness in these areas.
Pfizer and Moderna recently tested their vaccines in vitro and said they can prevent new strains. But we do not have a reading of the effectiveness of a clinical trial scenario. This makes it difficult to perfectly compare the performance of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine with that of Pfizer and Moderna in the current coronavirus situation.
Therefore, we will turn our focus only to Johnson & Johnson. Considering the increase in variants during the main test, I think the candidate vaccine produced decent results.
From “decent” to “very strong”
But there is another element of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine that is particularly attractive: it involves just one dose. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are administered in two-dose regimens. Novavax’s (NASDAQ: NVAX) candidate close to the market is also a two-dose injection. This means that Johnson & Johnson produced these decent results with just one jab. So, instead of saying that the results are “decent”, we can mean that they are very strong.
What’s so good about a single dose vaccine? For those of us with outstretched arms, it means an uncomfortable punch instead of two. Most people would like that. And it’s even better for governments and hospital systems. The supply and distribution of vaccines has been a problem. Many people who have received a dose of the vaccine fear that more doses will not arrive in time for the second injection. With a single dose vaccine, more people can be fully vaccinated with a given supply of the product. And, of course, storage and transport also become easier to handle.
Johnson & Johnson applied for Emergency Use Authorization (USA) on February 4. The company said it would be ready to distribute the doses immediately after a possible USA. If the company’s schedule is similar to that of Pfizer and Moderna, its vaccine may be on the market as early as March.
A look to the future
At the moment, the world needs more doses than Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson could produce. Therefore, all three can thrive in this market. But in the future, once the pandemic is over, Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose vaccine could gain market share – and even become the market leader.
But this vaccine is not a product ready to be used at Johnson & Johnson. The vast product range of this large pharmaceutical company generates billions of dollars in revenue each quarter. However, adding a coronavirus vaccine is a bonus that investors will appreciate.