It is estimated that 631,000 Americans will have died of Covid-19 by June 1, according to the latest forecast from the University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics and Assessment (IHME).
The team behind the influential prediction model said that much depends on the vaccine’s release and the spread of variants. The worst-case scenario could bring the death toll to 703,000.
“The balance between the spread of a new variant and the increase in associated transmission and the increase in vaccination in our most likely scenario suggests continued declines in daily deaths until June 1,” said the report.
As of Thursday night, the United States had reported more than 455,000 deaths from Covid-19, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
The IHME cited a survey that shows an increase in the number of Americans willing to be vaccinated, from 54% to 66%.
“Daily deaths have peaked and are decreasing. On June 1, 2021, we project that 123,600 lives will be saved with the implementation of the projected vaccine, ”said the IHME.
How to save more lives: If 95% of Americans wore masks, 44,000 more lives would be saved, said IHME. Currently, the use of a mask is about 77%.
And people need to stay put even if they have been vaccinated, said IHME. If vaccinated people start moving and traveling normally, 17 states could see a daily increase in deaths again in April and May.
“The best strategies to control this pandemic period are the rapid increase in vaccination, the continued and expanded use of the mask and combined efforts to prevent rebound mobility among vaccinees. Some states are withdrawing mandates quickly, which poses a real risk of increased transmission as new variants spread and vaccination rates remain comparatively low, ”warned the IHME.