With the Bay Area’s ICU capacity now over 23% – a big improvement over the last reported ICU availability rate of just 6.5% – the region now fits the state’s criteria for leaving its order of stay in current home.
In terms of the pandemic, things are looking up for our slice of California. The past seven days saw the opening of mass vaccination sites, more doses of COVID-19 vaccine arriving in the Bay Area and, especially among these positive updates, the region’s ICU capacity increased significantly to 23.6% – which led to some health experts to consider this past outbreak (and the series of restrictions it has caused) something we can leave in the past.
“I really want to emphasize this, that I firmly believe that this is our last wave and this is the last time that these restrictive blocks will occur, due to the availability of the vaccine,” UCSF infectious disease specialist Dr. Monica Gandhi told KPIX. “Because of the new government and the federal government pushing it out, signing the National Defense Law.”
Gandhi also noted to local news media that she is encouraged by the availability of ICUs in the region and has seen COVID-19-related hospitalizations fall into Zuckerberg San Francisco General, where she works.
However, the elephant in the room remains: will the state’s current order to stay at home be suspended? The Bay Area, in fact, meets the criteria for it to be removed – but it is not entirely clear when this might happen. (Most of the eleven counties in the Bay Area, including the city and San Francisco County, also have specific COVID-19 restrictions that differ from those imposed by the state, so it is somewhat uncertain which ones may or may not remain.)
As the Chronicle describes, suspending the current blocking order would allow the Bay Area to resume activities permitted under the state’s purple layer restrictions; this includes things like dining out in the open, safely living with more people outside your immediate home, and allowing hair salons and other personal care services to resume in-house services.
The state uses a complex formula (which still remains ambiguous, at best) to predict the rates of four-week ICU availability in any region. The Sacramento region’s order was lifted when its ICU availability was at about 9% – so this is promising news for Bay Area residents.
This update also comes after Mayor Breed hinted on Friday that some of San Francisco’s COVID-19 restrictions could be eased soon, as the city’s “COVID-19 reproductive rate” continues to fall.
Still: wear a mask, take social distance seriously and, for all that is sacred in the world … don’t fly to Puerto Vallarta in the spring.
Related: Opening of three mass vaccination centers in San Francisco; The Oakland RingCentral Coliseum will also become a vaccination site
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Opening of the mass vaccination site at City College – Walk-ups are not allowed
Image: Getty Images / beerkoff