STEAMBOAT SPRINGS – There has not been a single positive result from an influenza test done at the UCHealth Yampa Valley Medical Center in Steamboat Springs since the flu season arrived in late September, said hospital infection preventer Lauren Bryan.
Each flu season is different – and unpredictable – but this year is exceptionally calm, she said. There were only 18 hospitalizations for the flu in Colorado.
“This is an extremely intriguing phenomenon. We are in a historic and unbelievable situation, ”said pediatrician Norio Sugaya in an article in the Wall Street Journal on January 21.. Sugaya serves on an influenza committee of the World Health Organization.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are reporting record numbers. During the 2019 flu season, from September 29 to December 28, the CDC reported more than 65,000 cases of flu in the United States. During the same period in 2020, the CDC reported just over 1,000 cases.
And the trend looks global, said Routt County Public Health Director Roberta Smith, who has spent most of her career working on infectious disease management. From 1999 to 2007, she coordinated the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment’s influenza immunization program.
Although flu seasons are inherently unpredictable, there are some hypotheses as to why the 2020-21 season at this time is virtually non-existent.
On the one hand, Bryan said, children are not at school and sharing germs as they would be during a normal year. And everything that people are doing to prevent the spread of COVID-19 – wearing a mask, social distance, avoiding crowds, washing hands and cleaning surfaces – helps prevent respiratory diseases.
“These are the principles we have always upheld to prevent the spread of respiratory illness at this time of year,” said Smith of washing his hands and covering his mouth when sneezing.
Travel is also a big part of how different strains of influenza spread each year, Bryan noted, locally and around the world.
“It just takes a few out-of-staters to bring a new lineage, pass it on to some residents and then to others,” said Bryan of tourist communities like Steamboat. “If you break that chain, it protects people.”
Based on the ease with which COVID-19 continues to spread, despite all the mitigation measures in place, it appears that the coronavirus is more transmissible than the flu – although both spread in the same way.
It is possible that people have had fewer flu tests and are less likely to go to the hospital, especially in the beginning of the pandemic. However, statistics show that positive flu tests in the United States fell 98% after the start of the pandemic, while the number of samples sent fell by only 61%.
More people getting the flu shot may also play an important role. The latest flu vaccination data is not yet available at the state or city level, but Smith said some of the first data on people 65 and older show a high rate of vaccination.
According to the CDC, more than 192 million doses of the flu vaccine have been distributed since the beginning of the season – the largest number of doses distributed in the United States in a single flu season.
There was a bigger-than-normal boost for the flu vaccine this year, as health professionals said it would help reduce the burden on the health system and decrease the risk of influenza and COVID-19 co-infection.
It also helps individuals and their doctors to rule out the flu, due to similarities in symptoms with COVID-19.
The effectiveness of this year’s flu vaccine will not be known for months, and the lack of data will make it more difficult to determine. Bryan said based on what little is known, the strains selected for this year’s injection appear to be a good combination.
It is not too late to get the flu shot, Bryan and Smith said. And it is still a very good idea to do so.
Bryan emphasizes that the data show that getting the flu shot reduces all causes of mortality.
The flu season is not over and there may be a peak at the end of the season, they warned. Other years saw a smooth start followed by a sharp increase in cases in March and April, Bryan said.
“It may be that we have not yet been hit,” she added.
In general, not overburdening the health system with an active flu season other than COVID-19 is a very good thing. It also helps conserve supplies of personal protective equipment, Bryan noted.
“If we had a big flu spike in addition to COVID – our resources would be absolutely put at maximum,” said Bryan.
There are also some data implications, Smith noted.
“As there are so few strains out there, this will make the WHO decision to choose the strains for next season’s vaccine more difficult,” she said.
To contact Kari Dequine Harden, call 970-871-4205, send an email to kharden@SteamboatPilot.com or follow her on Twitter @kariharden.