This is the final article in a three-part series on Oregon’s COVID-19 response as we enter the second year of the pandemic. Part one looks at the double-edged sword of Oregon’s COVID-19 success. Part two asks if Oregon’s COVID-19 pivot was sufficient to address racial inequalities.
Distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine in Oregon is generally on the rise, and the state plans to extend eligibility to the next large portion of Oregon residents in late March. In addition, state officials announced this week that Oregon will follow the Biden government’s schedule and open vaccination eligibility for all Oregon residents by May 1.
This accelerated schedule points to growing confidence in the federal government’s ability to deliver more vaccines. This indicates that we will be able to vaccinate people more quickly.
The faster we vaccinate, the faster we will begin to get closer to collective immunity and some sense of normalcy in everyday life.
But it also means that we will probably reach an inflection point sooner – one that would certainly warm the heart of 19th century British economist Alfred Marshall. It is the point at which the supply of doses of the COVID-19 vaccine is greater than the demand – even if not everyone is vaccinated.
At that point (and preferably before), the state will have to change gears and try to convince those who are hesitant to apply for their vaccines.
Total weekly vaccine doses reserved for Oregon by the federal government
The federal government allocates a certain portion of the vaccine to each state. Oregon’s vaccine allocation peaked in early March, when the federal government dispatched the first doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Oregon’s distribution includes a supplement for Native American tribes who chose to work with the state instead of the federal government for the distribution of vaccines. Graphic: Jes Burns / OPB Data source: CDC, Kaiser Family Foundation 3-17-21
Where are we now
There were some reservations on the part of Oregon officials to follow the new federal vaccination schedule because of persistent uncertainty about the vaccine supply.
Although vaccine allocations to Oregon by the federal government have generally increased in recent months, they have been inconsistent. Things peaked at about 210,000 doses in early March, when the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was sent to the states, but since then allocations have been around 10,000-25,000 lower doses per week.
“It is not as if there was a vaccine there that could have come out. Basically, we are chewing the vaccine the week we received it, ”said Oregon Health Authority director Patrick Allen.
Allen told OPB this week that he expects the number of doses delivered to the state to double by May 1.
“At the moment, we are stuck with a ‘let’s put 15,000 doses in one place’ strategy,” he said. “It is much better to place 15 doses in a thousand places so that people have immediate access to multiple options in their own neighborhood.”
He said this will begin to happen as more doses of vaccine arrive.
Oregon is vaccinating people at the country’s 36th slowest rate, but Allen says the state has enough capacity to vaccinate more people. The problem remains the supply of the federal government. Oregon ranks 34th for the population in doses delivered to the state.
“We have the capacity to make at least 300,000 first doses per week. We are currently receiving about 150,000 first doses per week, and this is increasing to 200,000. So we have ample capacity to shoot people in the arms, ”said Allen.
As of Wednesday, just over half a million Oregon residents had been fully vaccinated.
COVID-19 vaccine doses administered
Total doses delivered to each state per 1,000 inhabitants
Oregon is the 34th in number of doses of COVID-19 vaccine distributed by the federal government. Two of the three approved vaccines require two doses per person. Several states, including Oregon and Washington, are receiving additional doses intended for Native American tribes within their borders. Due to logistical issues, Alaska’s delivery schedule differs from other states, which can help offset its higher rate. Graphic: Jes Burns / OPB Data source: CDC, Kaiser Family Foundation
The next chapter
If the vaccination plan for all Oregon residents is maintained, May and June will be a full-fledged vaccination campaign.
But probably at some point in July or August, the wave of “vaccinated” people willing to start dripping. And at that point, Oregon will face what could be the next big obstacle to the vaccine: insufficient weapons for all available doses of the vaccine.
“This is exactly what is in the future. Now, demand exceeds supply. But whenever that changes … and there is less demand than supply, vaccine hesitation can be the real problem, ”said Creighton University sociologist Kevin Estep, who studies public health issues, including refusal of the vaccine.
Research conducted in the United States last year suggests that a large proportion of the population is unlikely to be vaccinated against COVID-19. That number is almost 25% of adults, according to new research from Monmouth University.
Since children and adolescents under 16 have not yet been approved for vaccines, Oregon will need more than 90% of its adults to become immune to COVID-19 to achieve collective immunity – and perhaps an even higher percentage, considering the new variants, which can be more contagious. We will have some protection because of people who have natural immunity against the capture and survival of COVID-19, but not as much as other states that have had much higher case rates. The rest will need to be vaccinated.
Vaccine hesitation for COVID-19 is a new type of phenomenon – different in many ways from refusing the vaccine linked to other diseases. Although there is some overlap, this is not your typical anti-vaccine group.
“The categories of people – the polls are telling us – who are most hesitant about COVID vaccines are not really the same demographic group that hesitate about other vaccines,” said Estep. “These people have been vaccinated. They received many other vaccines. They are not against vaccination. They can even get the flu shot. ”
Monmouth’s research suggests that Republicans are much more likely – 36% versus 6% of Democrats – to say they don’t want the vaccine. And 14% of people of color say they will not be vaccinated against the coronavirus.
About 18% of Oregon’s inhabitants are registered Republicans. About 25% are people of color, who have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic compared to whites in Oregon. In addition, Oregon has a reputation for being a focus of anti-vaccination sentiment.
“The vaccine’s hesitant group is huge, right? And then there is a lot of space to do a good job, a good job of public communication or health ”, said Estep.
A considerable part of these groups will need to be convinced to get vaccinated if the state wants to lift restrictions on social distance and mask orders without putting people at risk.
There will be many competing forces at work this summer when Oregon reaches the tipping point of supply and demand. One will be the powerful bait and social pressure to return to normal after more than a year of the pandemic. Estep says that this will resist the hesitation that so many Americans feel when it comes to the COVID-19 vaccines.
“Where does the tug of war go? I don’t think we have enough information yet to tell. “