The rapid distribution of Covid-19 vaccines in the United States is starting to work, according to an analysis of official data from the Financial Times that shows that the number of deaths and hospitalizations is falling more rapidly among the elderly than in the general population.
The United States oversaw one of the fastest vaccination programs in the world, administering more doses than any other country and vaccinating a large proportion of its population.
The elderly and those in nursing homes were first in line for vaccines, resulting in a rapid decline in hospitalizations and deaths from Covid-19 among these groups in recent weeks. The decline in these groups was more rapid than in the rest of the population, which has also seen a broad reduction since the peak of winter.
Tom Frieden, the former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said: “Vaccines are already saving thousands of lives in the United States. The rapid decline in the number and proportion of deaths among nursing home residents is the direct result of life-saving vaccines. “
The US suffered more in terms of general fatalities than any other country due to Covid-19, with more than 500,000 deaths. But it has also been shown to be more effective in vaccinating a large number of people, having now administered almost 33 doses per 100 people.
The first groups to be vaccinated were health workers and those who work and live in nursing homes, which states started vaccinating in December, as soon as the US regulator authorized the first vaccine.
The US suffered more in terms of general fatalities than any other country due to Covid-19, with more than 500,000 deaths. But it has also been shown to be more effective in vaccinating a large number of people, having now administered almost 33 doses per 100 people © Octavio Jones / Getty Images
In the first month of implantation, about 78 percent of nursing home residents were vaccinated, according to a study conducted last month by the CDC. Since then, that number has continued to rise, according to those working in the sector, who say they think that in many homes almost all residents have already received at least one shot.
Government data show that cases and deaths among nursing home residents started to drop about a week after the start of deployment, even as cases and deaths across the country as a whole continued to increase.
In the next two months, until the end of February, cases among nursing home residents fell 96 percent, while deaths fell 87 percent.
During the same period, cases among 18- to 54-year-olds, the group least likely to have been vaccinated, fell by 72 percent, while deaths decreased by 80 percent.
Ruth Katz, senior vice president of policy at LeadingAge, which represents nursing homes across the country, said: “The safest place in the country to be now, with regard to Covid-19, is a retirement home. Many homes have vaccination rates among their residents in the 1990s [per cent range]. “
Older people in general have also experienced a steeper decline in Covid-19 cases and deaths, with most states offering the vaccine to everyone over 65 earlier this year. The CDC changed its orientation in mid-January to urge states to offer the vaccine to everyone over 65 and those with underlying diseases, although many states have already started to do so.
A vaccination site in Inglewood, California, where people with pre-existing health problems have access to vaccination © Mike Blake / Reuters
Government data show that hospitalizations have fallen by 90 percent among people aged 85 and over since the peak of winter, considerably more than the 72 percent decline among people aged 18 to 49 years. The gap opened in the weeks after vaccination started.
The recent drop in Covid-19 rates among older Americans is not only faster than among younger people, but also faster than that seen after the country’s second wave in August, in another sign of the impact of vaccines .
Evidence of the “vaccine effect” in the United States follows similar data from European countries and Israel, which showed that coronavirus rates fell more rapidly among vaccinated groups than those not vaccinated.
In the UK, cases among people over the age of 80 fell by 95%, while deaths in that age group fell by 93%. Among 18- to 69-year-olds, cases fell slightly less, 91 percent, while deaths fell 87 percent.
Israel has administered more than 100 doses per 100 people and vaccinated the vast majority of its elderly population. Almost no Covid restrictions are in place and infections have dropped to 3% of people taking the test.
In the United States, many states are now expanding eligibility for vaccines, and as a result, cases, hospitalizations and deaths have started to fall more rapidly among young people, thus closing the gap with older age groups.
Leana Wen, professor of public health at George Washington University, said: “Many states are opening their doors because there were so many different categories of eligible people that it was slowing things down.”
But even as the deployment continues with almost 2.5 million doses a day being distributed on average, according to Bloomberg data, the political dispute over mitigation efforts remains alive.
A server works at a bar at a restaurant in Pearland, Texas. Earlier this month, Texas and Mississippi announced the end of all Covid-related restrictions, including mask mandates. © Go Nakamura / Bloomberg
Earlier this month, Texas and Mississippi announced the end of all Covid-related restrictions, including mask mandates, movements that were condemned by US President Joe Biden as examples of “Neanderthal thinking”.
Although cases continue to decline in most places, a recent increase in certain states has raised concerns that more transmissible and potentially more lethal variants may be occurring. Rochelle Walensky, head of the CDC, said earlier this week that she expected variant B.1.1.7, which hit the UK this winter, to become the dominant variant in the United States in early April.
Despite this, doctors are cautiously optimistic that the continued acceleration of the vaccine program will continue to reduce cases and death rates. Frieden, the former director of the CDC, said: “Targeted vaccination for people over 65 is already reducing mortality rates and I hope that reduction will continue.”