The variant is a mutation of the coronavirus. It appeared in the United Kingdom and has since been detected in several countries around the world, including the United States and Canada. Scientists say there is nothing new about mutating a virus. Viruses constantly mutate naturally as they replicate and circulate in their hosts. In the case of the UK variant, the result appears to have been a virus that is more transmissible, but does not cause more serious illness.
How many cases have there been in Massachusetts?
So far, there has officially been a case. The Massachusetts Department of Public Health announced on Sunday that the first case was detected in the state. The department said the person who contracted the variant was a Boston woman in her 20s who traveled to the UK and became ill the day after her return. The Boston Public Health Commission issued a statement saying that the woman “returned to Boston on January 3, 2021 and made a brief stopover (approximately 2 hours) at Logan International Airport before traveling to another state”.
“Given the greater transmissibility of this variant and the number of states and other countries that have found infected cases, the Department expected the variant to reach Massachusetts eventually,” said DPH. Governor Charlie Baker said two weeks ago that there was no reason not to believe that the variant was already in the state.
Why should I worry about a case?
Experts and officials believe it could well be the beginning of a tsunami of cases. “The bottom line is that the variant seems more transmissible and in Britain, it quickly became the dominant strain – they saw it increase rapidly over time,” Dr. Paul Sax, clinical director of the Brigham Hospital Infectious Diseases Division and Women’s, said in an email.
The new variant is “definitely more contagious, spreading more easily from one person to another than the previous version of the virus. What this means is that, as the new variant spreads more quickly through the population than the old one, it will soon become the predominant form of the virus in the population. It will outdo the other, ”said Dr. Philip Landrigan, who directs the Boston College Program for Global Public Health and the Common Good.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned on Friday of the possibility of another sudden increase in cases and deaths due to the variant. The agency said its modeling suggests it is possible that the variant would become the predominant source of all infections in the United States by March.
“I want to emphasize that we are deeply concerned that this strain is more transmissible and could accelerate outbreaks in the United States in the coming weeks,” said Dr. Jay Butler, deputy director of infectious diseases at the CDC. “We are sounding the alarm and asking people to realize that the pandemic is not over yet and it is by no means time to throw in the towel.”
What is the problem with increased transmissibility?
Experts say the new variant does not cause more serious illness, which is good news. But the problem is that if the disease spreads to a much larger number of people, more people will be hospitalized and die.
“We should not be carried away by complacency and say, ‘Well, maybe it is more communicable, but it is not a more serious disease.’ Well, the more people infect, quantitatively, the more people will be hospitalized. And quantitatively, the more people are hospitalized, the more people will become seriously ill and die, ”said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, on Tuesday.
“The more people you get infected, the more serious the situation will become,” said Fauci, who was appointed to serve as chief medical advisor to the Biden government, in an interview with Harvard Business Review, broadcast live as part of the HBR Now series.
What can we do about it?
Experts and officials say the variant can be stopped by the same precautionary measures that people are already taking. “The same things that we do to prevent covid19 must now apply to this variant – distance, avoid crowds, masks in public spaces,” said Sax.
“Once you’re here, it will spread,” said Landrigan. “Everyone has to keep their guard up. Everyone has to double what they are doing. … People will have to be even more conscientious when doing these things. “
Landrigan said state officials should also carefully monitor whether bars, restaurants and public meetings are increasing the spread of the virus.
“The concern that the new variant may further exacerbate the pandemic in the coming weeks should lead everyone to reduce prevention. This includes continuous social detachment, wearing masks, avoiding crowds and getting ready for the vaccine when it’s your turn, ”Dr. Howard Koh, professor at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health and former Obama ruler. health officer said in an email.
Will vaccines stop the virus?
Vaccines are another important way to prevent the spread of the virus, but so far, implantation has been slow in Massachusetts.
Vaccines appearing from now on appear to protect against the variant, so it is “important that we increase supply and distribution as quickly as possible,” said Sax.
Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, told the Globe last week: “There is every reason to believe [the variant] will cause a big increase in cases. “
“If we can start vaccinating people seriously,” said Jha, “it will make things very dull.”
Nobody in public health is looking at the data and saying, “Oh, thank God,” Jha told the Globe. “We are looking at the next four to six weeks and thinking, ‘Please put the vaccine in people.’ We are going to face six to eight difficult weeks. “
Could there be more problems ahead of other mutations?
Scientists say the UK variant may not be the only variant of the problem to emerge. Other mutations are emerging rapidly, including two notable variants already detected in South Africa and Brazil. The longer it takes to vaccinate people, the more likely it is that a variant will emerge that could escape current tests, treatments and vaccines, the Associated Press reported.
“We need to do everything we can now … to get the transmission as low as possible,” Dr. Michael Mina, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, told the news agency. “The best way to prevent the appearance of mutant strains is to delay transmission.”
“We are in a race against time” because the virus “can trip over a mutation” that makes it more dangerous, said Dr. Pardis Sabeti, an evolutionary biologist at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard.
Material from the Globe news agency and previous Globe stories was used in this report.
Martin Finucane can be reached at martin.finucane@globe.com.