A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences projects that Covid-19 will reduce life expectancy in the U.S. in 2020 by 1.13 years, with a disproportionate number of deaths occurring among black and Latino populations. When combined with provisional estimates of death rates in the United States for the first half of the year, the data show a clear increase in the death rate as the pandemic took over the country.
“The estimated reductions for the black and Latino populations are three to four times greater than for whites. Consequently, Covid-19 must reverse 10 years of progress made to close the gap between blacks and whites in life expectancy and reduce the previous advantage of Latin mortality by more than 70% “, according to the study’s researchers, Theresa Andrasfay of the University of Southern California and Noreen Goldman of the Office of Population Research at Princeton University.
“Blacks and Latino Americans experienced a disproportionate burden of Covid-19 morbidity and mortality, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that increase the risk of exposure to Covid-19 and the risk of mortality for those infected,” added the study.
Before the pandemic, the United States had been making steady progress in terms of life expectancy, although it has declined in recent years.
But the pandemic has delayed all this progress and has also widened the gap between black and white life expectancy.
“It is estimated that the black and Latin populations experience declines in life expectancy at birth of 2.10 and 3.05 years, respectively, both times the reduction of 0.68 years for whites. These projections imply an increase of almost 40% in blacks “Difference in the life expectancy of whites, from 3.6 years to more than 5 years, eliminating the progress made in reducing this differential since 2006”, added the study.
CDC: US mortality rate increased significantly in the second quarter
New data from the National Center for Health Statistics suggests that Covid-19 caused a significant jump in mortality in the United States.
The age-adjusted all-cause mortality rate was 769 per 100,000 in the first quarter of 2020 and increased to 840 in the second quarter of the year. By comparison, the death rate in the second quarter of 2019 was 702 per 100,000, said the NCHS.
Although the report shows that mortality increased significantly in 2020, it provides an incomplete picture of the pandemic, as data for the first two quarters is currently available.
Last week, CDC statisticians said Covid-19 was probably the third leading cause of death in 2020. They estimated that there were between 316,252 and 431,792 excess deaths in the entire year 2020.
Heart disease is the leading cause of death and cancer is the second leading cause of death in the United States.
These estimates are based on all death records received and processed by the NCHS on November 27, 2020.
An effect of several years
The Andrasfay and Goldman study used data from the Census Bureau and data on actual and pandemic deaths from the University of Washington Institute of Health Metrics and Assessment and the National Center for Health Statistics. They also used various models and estimates for the mortality rates.
“Our average estimate indicates a reduction in life expectancy in the United States at birth from 1.13 years to 77.48 years, less than any year since 2003,” they said.
“This impact is about 10 times greater than the worrying annual reductions of several years ago, which were largely attributed to drug overdoses, other external causes and respiratory and cardiovascular diseases,” added the study.
The United States is already lagging behind other rich countries in terms of life expectancy and the pandemic will make it worse.
“The reduction in US life expectancy in 2020 is projected to exceed that of most other high-income countries, indicating that the United States – which already had a life expectancy below all other high-income developed nations before the pandemic – will see their life expectancy drop even further behind their peers, “said the study.
The effects of the pandemic are expected to last well beyond 2020.
“Some reduction in life expectancy may persist beyond 2020 because of the continued mortality of Covid-19 and the long-term health, social and economic impacts of the pandemic,” added the study.
Maggie Fox and Jessica Firger contributed to this report.