The chance of a person hospitalized by COVID-19 dying in Los Angeles County has doubled in recent months.
This is according to an analysis released on Wednesday by the county’s Department of Health Services, which found that the chance of someone dying from the disease while hospitalized increased from about 1 in 8 in September and October to about 1 in 4 since the beginning of November.
These increased odds coincide with a devastating increase in the death toll in LA County. In early November, when the current coronavirus outbreak began, there were less than 20 deaths from COVID-19 per day, on average. But during the week-long period that ended on Wednesday, there were about 206 deaths reported each day, according to data compiled by The Times.
More than 4,000 of the more than 14,000 COVID-19 deaths in LA County have been reported since New Year’s Day. The county is responsible for about 41% of California’s 35,000 cumulative COVID-19 deaths, despite housing only a quarter of the state’s population.
Dr. Roger Lewis, director of COVID-19 for hospital demand modeling for the LA County Department of Health Services, said the increased chance of dying is a result of hospitals being so crowded that only the sickest patients are being admitted.
Since hospitalized COVID-19 patients are now uniformly more seriously ill, a larger percentage of them are more likely to die.
“During the current rise, while hospitals are critically overcrowded … doctors are being extremely judicious in their decisions to hospitalize patients,” said Lewis.
“Current data suggest that only patients who are very ill and clearly require acute hospitalization are being admitted. And it is likely that a larger fraction of patients are being sent home with instructions to return to the hospital if their illness gets worse, ”said Lewis.
Although state data shows that 7,073 coronavirus-positive patients were hospitalized across the county on Wednesday – a drop of more than 12% from the 8,098 record set on January 5 – the number of COVID patients requiring intensive care remained relatively stable in the same period, dropping to 1,687 on Wednesday, down 2.5% from the high of 1,731 set on January 8.
When hospitals are less in crisis, they are more likely to admit people who are about to need hospitalization.
But as the demand for resources and beds has grown, so does the need for COVID-19 patients admitted to LA County.
Here is a summary of how the composition of COVID-19 patients hospitalized in the county changed from September and October, when the pandemic was less devastating, to the peak period that began in November.
Between September 4 and November 3, the average resources needed for each COVID-19 patient were:
• Days in the hospital: 6.93
• Days in the intensive care unit: 2.09
• Days on mechanical ventilation: 1.16
Since November 3, the average resources needed for each COVID-19 patient have been:
• Days in the hospital: 9.49
• Days in the ICU: 2.38
• Days on mechanical ventilation: 1.89
The actual care a particular patient needs can vary widely. For example, some patients may not need ICU care, while others may spend weeks on ventilators, struggling to breathe and generally sedated, with a tube inserted through their mouth into the windpipe and connected to a machine that breathes for them.
Although the county has seen some improvement in the overall number of hospitals, Director of Public Health Barbara Ferrer emphasized that the current number remains alarmingly – and unsustainably – high.
“This is still a very large number of COVID patients, and our hospitals are flooded with people who are suffering from serious health problems because of COVID-19,” she said during an interview on Wednesday.
Daily deaths remain extraordinarily high in LA County, resulting in the National Guard being called on to help overburdened hospital morgues, taking the bodies to the county coroner’s office for storage until funeral homes and mortuaries can process the buildup. Local air quality authorities have lifted monthly limits on the number of cremations to avoid a public health crisis.
The current death rate is “more than double the pre-pandemic years, causing hospitals, funeral homes and crematoriums to exceed capacity, without the ability to process the buildup,” said the Coastal Air Quality Management District South on Sunday.
The air quality agency said that as of Friday, more than 2,700 bodies were being stored in hospitals and coroners’ offices.
In mid-April, when the pandemic was in its early stages, the daily death toll of COVID-19 in LA County was around 50, on average. The current wave was significantly worse, with the average number of daily deaths reaching 241 deaths per day in the seven-day period that ended on January 14.
Although the number of daily deaths has fallen, the rate is still significantly higher than at any time in the pandemic. On Wednesday, local health jurisdictions in LA County reported 294 deaths from COVID-19, one of the highest single-day counts in the entire pandemic. The record number of deaths reported in a single day is 318, which was reported on January 8 and January 12.
“COVID-19 continues to claim many lives – young and old – and many families and friends are facing difficult times without their loved ones,” said Ferrer.
LA County, by far the most populous in the country, both drives and reflects broader trends across the state.
California as a whole has also seen declines in its hospitalization numbers – reason for cautious optimism, officials say, but not yet a celebration.
On Wednesday, the number of COVID-19 patients hospitalized across the state dropped to 19,537, the lowest level since December 26. Of these, 4,670 patients are in ICUs, the lowest number in two weeks.
“These are the rays of hope that shine,” said Dr. Mark Ghaly, California’s secretary of health and human services, this week.
But the state, like LA County, is seeing a high number of deaths day after day. California had an average of 485 daily deaths in the past week, a 27% increase from two weeks ago, according to data compiled by The Times.
In the past 14 days, California has reported 17.7 deaths from COVID-19 per 100,000 residents, the 12th highest rate among all states, the Times data show. Arizona recorded the highest rate during that period, 28.1.
At Dodger Stadium, the largest of the five vaccination sites administered by the city in Los Angeles, health workers administered 7,730 vaccines on Wednesday and did not rule out any, said Mayor Eric Garcetti. He acknowledged the slow pace with which the vaccines were distributed, with some people waiting up to five hours on Wednesday, but said the average wait on Thursdays is 30 to 40 minutes.
He estimated that health professionals would inoculate more than 8,000 people at the stadium on Thursday.
Garcetti promised to continue trying to speed up the distribution of the vaccine, comparing the installation of an inoculation center as big as Dodger Stadium and functioning as “driving a car at 60 mph during construction”.
As the city and county continue to distribute vaccines to an increasing number of people, Garcetti said, he will push for people in communities disproportionately affected by the virus – low-income areas where many of the city’s essential workers live – to be “ at the front of the line. ”
Times staff writers Laura J. Nelson and Matthew Ormseth contributed to this report.