Going into the 2020-21 season, Kentucky’s freshman guard Brandon Boston Jr. was seen as the team’s infallible and inescapable superstar, who would likely end the season by leading the team in a deep NCAA tournament on its way to the top. five projects.
Unfortunately for Boston and the Wildcats, the five-star candidate’s freshman campaign did not match the pre-season hype, averaging just 12.0 points on 36.0% of pitches and 30.3% of three to go with 4.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1.4 steals per competition. He had his moments – 21 points against South Carolina, 17 points against Auburn, 17 points against Arkansas, 18 points against LSU, 18 points in Georgia, 20 points against Richmond, 15 points against Morehead State – but Boston’s consistent gunfights resulted in actions by the ex-candidate to the first five candidates to fall well out of the lottery, with some establishments that placed him in the second round of his last simulated sweepstakes.
Even considering the struggles and inconsistencies, most assumed that Boston’s original plan to be one and done was still sure that it would once take him back to Lexington, until Kentucky’s victory over South Carolina in the regular season. Final. Following what many believed to be Boston’s last home game at the Rupp Arena as a Wildcat – and it was a good one too, ending with 21 points from 7-13 shots and 6-10 from three to go with four rebounds, three assists and a theft – John Calipari drew attention by insinuating that the ex-candidate for five stars may, in fact, be on a two-year plan.
When asked about Boston’s difficulties and the turnaround at the end of the season, the UK coach compared his situation to Immanuel Quickley and PJ Washington, players who decided to return for a second season looking to prove that they are capable of improving.
“He never lost the fight. This has been difficult for him. And it’s also revealing to know how an individual player, guy, physically, that is – I’m not where I need to be physically, ”said Calipari. “We had other guys, it’s like Immanuel Quickley. Immanuel Quickley came into my office and said, ‘Coach, I know you said it would be difficult.’ This was after his first year. ‘This is much more difficult than I thought and I haven’t had a good year. But I’m coming back and you watch. No one will get over me. ‘ These are the guys who should be back. That mindset. PJ Washington. That mindset. I will not go back to the show. I’m not going to go back and say, ‘Hey, this is my team’. I’m coming back because I’m going to get better and I can accept that I didn’t play the way I needed to. And this is much more difficult than I thought. “
He took it a step further, confirming that he will encourage his players to test the waters of the NBA Draft, but he may not like what they hear from the scouts. And if the feedback is not good, they “can’t be raving” about where they are as players.
“I like it when children go through the process because the teams are not going to lie to them. They will tell the truth. Going through the process is good, ”he said. “Be any of these guys. You cannot be delusional because, if you are, it will catch you. You have to be real and you cannot blame anyone for your performance. You own it. And then you say, here’s what I can do and how I can improve. “
Superficially, it is difficult to imagine the idea of a player of the caliber of Boston and previous status as a candidate in the top ten and a possible recruit in the top five for a sophomore season, especially in Kentucky. During Calipari’s 12 years in Lexington, UK, I never brought that kind of player back, so why would that change now?
For a start, the cash difference can be substantial, which can be all that Boston needs to hear when it comes time to make a final decision.
Looking back to the 2020 NBA Draft class and the rookie scales for each of the top 10 choices – where Boston was expected to be chosen in 2021 at the start of the season – all first year salaries were over $ 4.24 million and four-year salaries flirted or substantially exceeded the $ 20 million range.
- Choice # 1 – $ 9.75 million first year salary, $ 44.27 million four year salary
- No. 2 choice – $ 8.73 million first year salary, $ 39.62 million four year salary
- No. 3 choice – $ 7.84 million first year salary, $ 35.59 million four year salary
- No. 4 choice – $ 7.07 million salary in the first year, $ 32.10 million salary in the fourth year
- No. 5 choice – $ 6.40 million salary in the first year, $ 29.08 million salary in the fourth year
- No. 6 choice – $ 5.81 million first year salary, $ 26.42 million four year salary
- Choice # 7 – $ 5.31 million first year salary, $ 24.13 million four year salary
- No. 8 choice – $ 4.86 million first year salary, $ 22.12 million four year salary
- No. 9 choice – $ 4.47 million first year salary, $ 20.34 million four year salary
- No. 10 choice – $ 4.24 million first year salary, $ 19.33 million four year salary
Comparing these dollar figures with the current Boston ranking in the various prominent simulation projects, the difference is substantial.
- NBC Sports – No. 16 – $ 3.12 million salary in the first year, $ 15.09 million salary in the fourth year
- NBADraft.net – No. 21 – $ 2.48 million first year salary, $ 12.15 million four year salary
- Hoopshype – No. 21 – $ 2.48 million first year salary, $ 12.15 million four year salary
- ESPN – No. 26 – $ 2.04 million first year salary, $ 10.45 million four year salary
- CBS Sports – No. 27 – $ 1.97 million first year salary, $ 10.15 million four year salary
- The Athletic – No. 33 – $ 898,310 first year salary, $ 2.4 million two year salary
- Tankathon – No. 36 – $ 449,115 one year salary (bidirectional contract)
If the difference is, say, choice number 16 in 2021 and choice number 10 in 2022, the risk of injury and stock loss may not be worth the difference of one million a year over four seasons in the league. If he falls to his twenties, we are now talking about a difference of about $ 20 million compared to the first five candidates that he should be entering his time in Kentucky.
Guaranteed money is important, but there is a big difference between the life-changing money that comes with selection at the end of the first round and the generational money that comes with being one of the top five choices. And with the expectation that the 2022 NBA Draft will be exponentially weaker than the 2021 class, it is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities to return to the top five with efficient kicks, enhanced strength and continued growth as a defender in 2021-22.
If Boston returns to school and averages of, say, 18 points from 45% of shots and 35% from three to go with 6.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.0 steals per contest, he is back on track. And that’s a difference of 6.0 points, 1.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 0.6 steals per game more than he’s getting now, along with the 9% increase in pitching and the percentage of pitches of 3 points in just under 5%. All doable leaps, and with Boston undeniably exuding confidence – he once said he wanted to be the greatest basketball player of all time – one would think he would not be afraid to bet on himself.
In addition to the numbers and the money – and this is certainly the most significant part of it all – Boston failed to get the Kentucky experience that he signed up for when he committed to the program in July 2019. He didn’t receive the shrill screams of sold-out crowds at Rupp Arena, the warm welcome that accompanies Big Blue Madness, the typical spotlights and fanfare that comes with events like the Champions Classic and CBS Sports Classic, hostile road environments and crowded crowds of SEC and NCAA tournaments. Off the ground, he failed to interact with If anything, his experience in the Sierra Canyon as a veteran playing alongside names like Ziaire Williams, Bronny James and Zaire Wade in sold-out arenas with celebrities sitting beside the court whenever he played was more ‘Kentucky’ than Kentucky was this season. That is where he thrived and increased his draft stock the first time, without hearing the sounds of dribbling, shoe hisses and coach screams echoing in empty places.
Improving your stats and increasing your draft stock could go hand in hand with things just getting back to normal in the 2021-22 season.
Is it a closed deal that Boston refuses the professional route in favor of returning to Kentucky for another season? Not God. In fact, if it weren’t for Calipari opening the door to that possibility last weekend, I’m not sure if anyone would be discussing this as a legitimate possibility right now.
But Cal opened that door, and it’s certainly worth exploring.