Blue Jays beat writer Scott Mitchell reported this weekend that * at some point * the Cubs and Blue Jays talked about Kris Bryant and Kyle Hendricks. I tried my best to give that context, since clear the Blue Jays would be interested there, because it could be an obvious 2-by-1 fit for them. This does not mean that trade negotiations were serious, or in progress, or that they had a good chance of getting anywhere.
Still, the report caused quite a stir, and Mitchell wanted to emphasize what he was or was not saying. It was interesting, however, that, in confirming and clarifying what he was reporting, he took the additional step of adding another timeline:
Need. It is also a business that I believe could be revisited in February. This is a scenario that may still be at stake. This is the report.
– Scott Mitchell (@ScottyMitchTSN) January 24, 2021
Ah, but that was before the Blue Jays signed Marcus Semien to a $ 18 million contract for a year last night. Surely that ends things, at least as far as Bryant is concerned?
Maybe not:
I wouldn’t necessarily rule out another addition to 3B, so don’t be making a lineup yet.
Biggio can still play almost every day in a superuser role.#BlueJays– Scott Mitchell (@ScottyMitchTSN) January 26, 2021
I would be surprised if the Blue Jays relegated Cavan Biggio to a purely utilitarian role, but I suppose if they have money to deploy and feel they really want to leave in 2021, so be it. We’ve seen teams add aggressively and create extreme quality depth before. There is also a question of how much more Blue Jays can add to the salary, but Mitchell suggests there is flexibility there to raise another $ 10 + million, so depending on how the return looked (ie, the salary going backwards), and / or depending on whether Jay’s ownership would increase further with the right finishing touch, perhaps payroll consideration isn’t really the thing either.
So, leaving the post-Semien adjustment issues aside for a moment, why would it possibly return in February? Presumably because that’s when even more free agent options would be off the board (Justin Turner on third base, for example?), And the Blue Jays may end up deciding they want to push on to another big movement like this. As we saw in previous years, big changes happen frequently in the first two weeks of February. But it tends to be the case that Business they are usually interrupted as soon as players arrive for spring training for a variety of pragmatic, logistical and budgetary reasons. This is not to say that you cannot make a big exchange during spring training, it is just extremely rare.
That is all to say, for this rumor – and the many others involving Cubs players walking out the door – it is fair to watch closely until February.
Ultimately, I stick to what I said in response to the initial report:
Would the Cubs really separate from the two in the same business? Well, if you could drop the optics, yes, we know that they are open to move Bryant, and the deal with Yu Darvish suggests that they would be open to move Hendricks too, if the payoff was correct. Honestly, I don’t know if the Cubs are concerned at this point in obliterating their chances of competing in 2021, despite what they may say. I think the long term is now the highest priority.
But even so, it is difficult for me to see the Cubs really dealing with the two sides of the franchise in the same trade, the return for which it is absolutely contemplating enough of a financial element that some people would destroy it. The possible return / return of the player to the Cubs would have to be almost unthinkable and, although the Blue Jays have the pieces to do that, I don’t know if they will really want to exchange any of the types I referenced.
I think the Blue Jays make sense to Bryant, specifically, as we discussed earlier (and since there were some rumors). But a deal paired with Hendricks? I could see the Blue Jays asking, but I have a hard time seeing them willing to pay the real price that the Cubs would need to receive to justify this combined deal. In addition, although Bryant is free after this year and is unlikely to return, Hendricks is in control for another four years. If the Cubs expect a faster turnaround than several years of rebuilding, they will, uh, need quality first releases like Hendricks in 2022+.
At that point, let me add here: if the truth is that the Blue Jays just want to add a good starting pitcher so as not to waste their offensive unit in 2021, then you would have to think that Zach Davies would be at least as plausible a target as Hendricks (which again means a lot to Cubs after 2021, when Davies would be a free agent). Just thinking out loud.