Once all the details are settled and Nolan Arenado was officially negotiated with the Cardinals, it is possible that the owner of the Rockies, Dick Monfort, and GM Jeff Bridich do not mention the word “rebuild” when explaining the trade to fans and the media. It could be sold as a perfect storm of discontent from a superstar with the front office coinciding with an unprecedented economic slowdown, leaving Rox with no choice but to move Arenado, despite the team’s total intention to fight in 2021.
But, let’s face it – the Rockies face a major uphill battle in West NL. The Dodgers and the Padres are arguably the two best teams in baseball, the Giants are an imminent threat considering all the space available on the payroll after the 2021 season, and even the Diamondbacks could be prepared for a recovery, considering they don’t seemed to have a break last year. After two consecutive losing seasons and the imminent loss of Arenado, Colorado seems to be the main candidate to blow things up. Several commercial candidates remain on the list, each with some hurdle that could limit what the Rocky Mountains could get back in terms of high-quality young talent.
Trevor StoryThe name of has been whispered in trade rumors all winter, but Story is only under contract until the 2021 season and many of the main competitors have already met their shortstop needs. Charlie BlackmonThe baton was not nearly as potent in 2020 as in previous years, and prospective traders can turn down the $ 52 million (in guaranteed cash and two years of player options) owed to Blackmon until the 2023 season. Scott ObergThe continuing health problems make it a question mark in the future. Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela each has three years left of team control and would certainly get some commercial attention, although none of the pitchers was consistent enough to deserve a first-rate return.
Assuming the Rockies are not completely devastated by a rebuild and start buying the old prospect Brendan Rodgers or the current potential candidate Zac Veen, who leaves a player who would immediately bring back a big exchange package. From a general consideration of the team’s control, major league historical and financial cost, German Marquez it’s not just the best Rocky Mountain business card, but one of the most intriguing business cards in all of baseball.
Let’s start with Marquez’s underestimated statistical record, as only 14 pitchers have accumulated more fWAR than Marquez (12.2) in the past four seasons. Marquez has an ERA of 4.21 and an above average 24.2 K% and 17.8 K-BB% in 613 2/3 entries since the start of the 2017 season. He averaged 177 frames per year during the 2017-19 campaigns of regulatory duration, while playing 81 2/3 league entries in the shortened season of 2020. A blow to Marquez is that he allows a little bit of strong contact, but he limited the damage thanks to the ability to maintain the ball on the ground (47.6% career grounding rate).
These are solid numbers for any pitcher, but particularly impressive for someone who launches his home games at Coors Field. As you might expect, Marquez has some pretty remarkable home / away divisions – an ERA of 3.51 out of 341 1/3 entrances during his career and an ERA of 5.10 out of 293 entrances in Denver. It is certainly possible that the right-handed man could reach another level of performance if he did not launch in an environment so favorable to the hitter, which makes it even more interesting for commercial suitors.
Marquez is entering his 26-year season and is already in prison until the 2023 season on a $ 43 million contract extension signed in April 2019. $ 36 million remains due to Marquez over the final three-year guaranteed term of this contract, which includes the purchase of $ 2.5 million for a $ 16 million club option for 2024. Less than two years later, Marquez’s extension still looks like a very astute move by Bridich and company, if not for the reason that they expected – this affordable price makes Marquez a fit for almost every competitor in the league, despite reduced revenues from the pandemic.
Although Marquez did not have a Cy Young Award winning peak as Blake Snell, Marquez is two years younger than Snell, has less injury problems and owes less money than the $ 39 million that Snell is scheduled to earn over the 2023 season. For that reason, Colorado is certainly in its right to ask a trade return similar to what the Rays received to trade Snell for the Fathers in this off-season. An enterprising team with some spare payroll space could also sweeten the pot by offering to take some more money out of the Rockies’ hands – perhaps the last $ 11 million remaining in the Ian Desmondthe wage contract, the purchase of your 2022 club option and your $ 1MM award bonus in the event of a deal.
It remains to be seen whether the Rockies will begin a complete reconstruction immediately after Arenado is gone, or perhaps if the team will do the reconstruction anyway. There is a clock running in a story considering its lack of remaining control, but the Rockies may not be in a hurry to move Marquez yet, since he still signed on until 2023. The argument can be made, however, that Marquez never it will be as valuable as it is now, so if the Rockies wanted to start looking ahead, now is the time to maximize their return.