The availability of intensive care units in the Bay Area jumped to 23.4% on Saturday after weeks of single-digit availability, a strong sign that the worst of the increase is over.
However, it was not clear when the region could emerge from the order of permanence in the state. The order must be suspended when the availability of the ICU is projected to exceed 15% in the next four weeks.
The Bay Area, which includes the nine major counties, as well as Monterey and Santa Cruz counties, is well beyond that limit at the moment.
The 13 counties in the Sacramento region had their state-imposed blockade suspended for more than a week. But the ICU capacity for that region remains at 11.9% – just over half the current number in the Bay Area.
State public health officials could not be reached immediately on Saturday to comment on when the blockade could be lifted for the Bay Area, and why the Bay Area remained blocked while Sacramento – with worse ICU numbers – did not.
The numbers look good, Marin County public health officer Matt Willis told The Chronicle on Saturday, adding that he hopes the Bay Area blockade will be lifted in the near future.
“It is the state’s decision,” he said. “But we are all looking at the same numbers and we all feel hopeful.”
San Francisco Mayor London Breed said on Friday that the city may “soon begin to reopen under California guidelines” because the city’s coronavirus transmission rates have dropped.
“This means that for each person receiving COVID-19, on average, they are switching to less than one person. We are slowing the spread, ”wrote Breed on Twitter.
San Francisco’s COVID-19 reproductive rate is below 1 at 0.99!
This means that for each person receiving COVID-19, on average, they are passing it on to less than one person. We are slowing the spread.
If this continues, we may soon begin to reopen according to CA guidelines.
– London Breed (@LondonBreed) January 22, 2021
The lifting of the blockade would allow the Bay Area to resume activities permitted under the state’s purple layer, including al fresco dining. Outdoor meetings with people outside your home can also be resumed – albeit with a restriction of a maximum of three families. Beauty salons could resume customer service indoors. However, individual counties may decide to continue to ban some of these activities, separately from state orders.
California health officials use a complex formula that has not been made public to predict the availability of the ICU in four weeks. “At the moment, the projections are not being shared publicly,” said Department of Public Health spokeswoman Ali Bay in an email to the Associated Press.
When the Sacramento region order was suspended, the availability of ICU was around 9%.
The lack of a state explanation has created confusion, which is the opposite of what the state should be doing, said David Canepa, chairman of the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors.
The information must be “clear, concise and, most importantly, avoid confusion,” he said.
The numbers looked encouraging, however, Canepa added.
“My concern is that the public will hear this and think that it is safe to go out with a normal business attitude,” he said. “I would also like to have dinner at my favorite restaurants, but for now I will stay at home and order takeaway food. If we can keep those numbers low over the next month, then I say bravo. I’ll be first in line to get a haircut at the barbershop.
“In the meantime,” he said, “stay home if you can, avoid meetings and wear your damn masks.”
This story is developing.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Lauren Hernández and Jill Tucker are writers for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected] [email protected] Twitter: @ByLHernandez @jilltucker