Year after year, experts repeat the same mantra about the Australian Open: expect surprises. “Annual tennis surprise party”, headlined years ago about the first Grand Slam of tennis year.
But in the past decade, compared to other championships, Happy Slam has been more like a Somber Slam for the downtrodden. Despite the start of the event, the best players did better at the Australian Open – which started Monday in Melbourne – than at any of the other three major tennis championships.
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From 2011 to 2020, the average rating of an Australian Open quarter-finalist was 16th (15.8), the highest ranking among all Grand Slams. When setbacks happen in the biggest tennis tournaments, they are much more likely to occur at the end of the year. The average quarter-final classification at the French Open was 18.3, at Wimbledon 21.4 and at the United States Open 20.6.
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The trend stands out especially on the women’s side, where the average quarter-final ranking in the final three Grand Slams of the season was around 24 or more. “After a long season, you are just trying to survive in the end,” said German Angelique Kerber, whose first of three Grand Slam titles was in Melbourne in 2016.
Melbourne quarter-finals are generally rated highly
Average quarterfinal rating in each tennis Grand Slam since 2011
| Australian Open | French Open | Wimbledon | US Open | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Women | Men | Women | Men | Women | Men | Women | Men |
| 2020 | 24.8 | 21.0 | 61.1 | 16.4 | – | – | 33.0 | 16.6 |
| 2019 | 16.9 | 17.3 | 22.3 | 7.6 | 33.8 | 18.6 | 15.4 | 21.4 |
| 2018 | 15.6 | 29.5 | 22.6 | 16.0 | 41.9 | 13.3 | 18.5 | 13.9 |
| 2017 | 22.6 | 15.1 | 18.0 | 6.9 | 21.0 | 11.5 | 72.5 | 23.8 |
| 2016 | 27.9 | 8.3 | 45.8 | 13.8 | 25.6 | 14.6 | 30.1 | 25.4 |
| 2015 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 24.5 | 6.3 | 18.1 | 13.5 | 19.9 | 10.0 |
| 2014 | 15.0 | 6.6 | 18.0 | 9.5 | 17.0 | 26.1 | 21.3 | 9.4 |
| 2013 | 16.9 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 17.5 | 28.4 | 24.8 | 9.4 |
| 2012 | 17.0 | 7.4 | 28.4 | 5.4 | 11.8 | 13.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 |
| 2011 | 12.4 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 13.4 | 28.4 | 30.0 | 23.0 | 10.5 |
Conventional thinking is that the start of the Australian Open – usually in the third week of the season – gives underdogs a better chance of defeating the best players than they would have in the middle of the year, once the best got into shape. But experts say more players are committing to getting the season off to a good start, which has led to more chalk-drawn draws.
Gone are the days when players arrived in Australia just before the tournament and simply hoped to play well, said Brad Gilbert, a former top five player and former coach of Andre Agassi and Andy Roddick.
In the early 1990s, Gilbert remembers arriving in Melbourne a week before the tournament and trying to run to become a form player, only to feel tired two days later. Nowadays, players usually arrive in Australia two weeks before the tournament and acclimate to the Australian summer.
“They get there early and get ready,” said Gilbert. “The Australian sets the tone for the year.”
Players say that instead of playing some of their worst tennis, the start of the tournament helps them to play the best. They haven’t spent months changing time zones and zigzagging around the world during the 11-month season, so they are excited to play again when they arrive in Australia.
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“It’s the start of the season,” said Novak Djokovic. “Everyone is renewed and ready to start the year.”
That was certainly the case for the 33-year-old world No. 1, who is looking for his ninth Australian Open title this fortnight. Djokovic struggled with an injury on Friday in a five-set match against American Taylor Fritz, but still came out with the victory.
The first Grand Slam of the season produced its share of fairy tale racing. In 2002, 16th place, Thomas Johansson, from Sweden, won his only Grand Slam title in Melbourne, and unselected finalists Marcos Baghdatis and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga advanced to the final in 2006 and 2008, respectively.
More recently, in 2018, a trio of players ranked out of the top 40 – Kyle Edmund (49), Hyeon Chung (58) and Tennys Sandgren (97) – all made it to the quarterfinals.
On the women’s side, just last year, Sofia Kenin, from the United States, with 15th place, had never passed the fourth round of an important championship, but she won the Australian Open.
But many of the best players are still upset at the start of Melbourne. Kenin herself, placed fourth this year, fell in the second round on Thursday to Kaia Kanepi without seeds. Also at the beginning of this year were the women’s side, 8th Bianca Andreescu and 9th Petra Kvitová, while the men’s tie lost No. 10 Gaël Monfils, No. 12 Roberto Bautista Agut and No. 13 David Goffin.
But overall, players in the top 10 tend to outlast the Australian Open more than other Grand Slams. The 10 players with the highest rating have averaged 3.48 rounds at the Australian Open since 2011; that average is 3.39 rounds at the French Open, 3.13 at the United States Open and just 3.03 at Wimbledon.
This year, of course, was different for almost all players in Australia. They had to be quarantined because of local restrictions on the pandemic and do not have the usual preparations for the Grand Slam. On Friday, Melbourne went into block after a new group of COVID-19 cases was developed, and fans – who were allowed a limited number in the tournament – will now be kept out.
All the changes made Gilbert think that the first Grand Slam of the season could be a shock or two and start the year with a real surprise party.
“This year is like no other,” he said. “I will be surprised if we don’t have a surprise semifinalist.”