First of all, it is important to say that this year it is difficult to predict admission cycles. Many colleges have delayed application deadlines. Many students were unable to visit the colleges they wish to enroll in. The standardized test is no longer required for almost all colleges.
But in January, two things are clear. Most colleges that were doing well before the coronavirus are still doing well – many of them exceptionally. The other thing that is clear is that colleges that primarily serve low-income students are not doing well.
Some campuses with deadlines that arrive at the beginning of the year, such as the University of California system, released the application totals and they are above. Elite private colleges with early decision and early action programs (the former require applications to apply) have announced how many students they have admitted – and their numbers are increasing. Many admitted more students earlier than in the past.
But there is another story.
“Many institutions are running low on enrollment and are concerned with meeting enrollment and revenue targets,” said Angel B. Pérez, CEO of the National Association for College Admission Counseling. “I am concerned that students and parents read about the most selective institutions and postpone college enrollment this year – although the reality is, most institutions in this country are more than happy to accept your applications and admit them.”
Consider California State University’s 23 campus system, which is highly diverse and has a reputation for educating low-income and minority students well. (It should be noted that Cal State also attracts many well-off students, and Ivies also attract low-income students.)
The Cal State system has extended the application deadline from December 1 to December 15 to make it easier to apply this year. It is not forcing candidates to submit test scores. Its campuses educate students close to their homes (and many still live at home), which has been an admission factor this year.
Cal State received 538,279 applications for beginning students and 256,543 for transfer students. Both numbers were down 5% from the previous year’s total, according to Toni Molle, director of strategic communications and public relations for the system.
“Campuses continue to assess their ability to serve other candidates and many have expanded the application window,” said Molle via email. “This extension also includes the ability for students to request exemptions from the registration fee and recalculate financial aid packages for those who are experiencing additional financial difficulties due to the pandemic.”
Fifteen Cal State campuses are still accepting freshman applications for the first time. Nineteen campuses are accepting applications for students transferred from the upper division. Five Cal State campuses are accepting transfer admissions from lower divisions.
Compare these statistics with those of the University of California system, which features campuses with impossible-to-enter admission statistics.
“Early enrollment data shows that some 250,000 freshman and transfer students have submitted applications so far, an increase of approximately 15% over last year,” said Claire Doan, executive director of strategic communications and media relations for the system.
Some campuses are extending deadlines.
Doan also noted that “the initial highlights among California freshmen include a 12% increase in their enrollments, a 20% jump among African Americans and an 11% increase among Chicanx / Latinx students”. The University of California – some campuses by choice and others by court order – is not considering SAT or ACT scores in this year’s admission process.
Now consider early decision / early action numbers for hypercompetitive private colleges.
Harvard University admitted 747 students at first, from an initial pool of 10,086. The pool increased from 6,424 last year, an increase of 57%. Last year, Harvard admitted 895 more students, but this year Harvard had to deal with 349 students who postponed admission because of the pandemic. Harvard also notes that 17% of students admitted earlier are the first in their families to go to college, up from 10% last year.
Brown University admitted 885 potential students who applied the early decision. The group of 5,540 early decision candidates from which these students were admitted was the largest at the university to date. Enrollments through the program increased by 22% in one year.
Yale University admitted 837 early action candidates from a pool of 7,939 applications, an increase of 38 percent and a record for the university.
Another university with record of early decisions was Duke University. It admitted 840 students from 5,036 who applied, an increase of 16% in one year. The admission rate is falling. This year it was 16.7%, compared to 20.7% last year.
Johns Hopkins University also set an early decision record, offering places for 520 students in a pool that was 11% larger than last year.
The setting of records for early decision was also visible in the public sector – at universities with highly competitive admissions.
Georgia Tech offers early admission only to students from Georgia. More than 6,000 Georgians applied and the university admitted 2,330 students.
The University of Virginia saw a 38% increase in early decision candidates and made 968 binding offers.
So, what do all these increases mean?
Pérez, from NACAC, said that “more and more selective ivies have increased in part due to the new optional exam policies”, even though only a few candidates are taking advantage of the policies. “It gives more hope to students who were strong in high school and extracurricular grades, but maybe they didn’t do well on exams – or they didn’t do any,” he said.
Many other colleges are not releasing the totals yet (which are not breaking records), he said.
“You will see many institutions falling because many students and families are concerned with finances,” he said. “School counselors are telling me that their families are more concerned with finances – and some are even postponing college enrollment until they have a better sense of what their families’ financial situation will be like. We have to remember that we have millions of unemployed or underemployed people, and the anxiety about paying for college is greater than ever. “
Katie Burns, a master admissions advisor at IvyWise, a company that advises students on admissions, and a former senior assistant admissions director at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, also said that taking optional exams has been a major driver for highly selective colleges. “It was always more than test scores, but now they can see that.”
The optional test “has led more students to think they are admissible,” said Burns.
But, she added, “colleges have left and have been a little more aggressive in admitting students earlier” to make up for the fear of losing students due to the pandemic.
She predicted that all early decision acceptances would make it more difficult for people to enter through a regular decision, since fewer seats would remain.
As for low-income students who care about money, she said, “I am hearing this in general.”
Burns added, “There are so many concerns at home. I see students becoming more overwhelmed with how to maintain control over their studies, and there are other priorities for them.”
“I see many students falling into the cracks,” she said.