- The 2020 election shows that the value of traditional TV advertising is decreasing. Despite spending more on political ads than in any previous election, neither Democrats nor Republicans had much to show.
- Public content faces tougher competition for public attention than ever before.
- In 2016, Trump earned almost $ 6 billion in free media coverage. Authenticity (or perceived authenticity) is the key to attracting attention and resonating with the public.
- Matt Terrill is a partner at Firehouse Strategies and served as chief of staff in Florida Senator Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign.
- This is an opinion column. The thoughts expressed are those of the author.
- Visit the Business Insider home page for more stories.
In the Kennedy era of the 1960s or the Reagan era of the 1980s, political ads on television won millions of votes. They were the opinion programming of their time, attracting genuine viewers’ attention.
Things are different today. The value of traditional ads is being questioned as they increase in price and decrease in effectiveness. If the 2016 election started the discussion about whether paid traditional media is worth the money, then the 2020 election might as well have ended it.
Approximately $ 8 billion was spent over the 2020 cycle on political ads – the most in history – but both sides have little to show for it. Democrats spent more than Republicans by almost 2 to 1, but the states where they spent the most seemed to produce the least results.
Democrats spent more than the Republican Party on $ 116 million in major Senate contests in North Carolina, Iowa, South Carolina and Kentucky, where many polls showed they were leading. Republicans won all four races anyway.
At the presidential level, President-elect Joe Biden spent more than President Donald Trump on TV by more than $ 200 million. In the final week of the election, Biden more than doubled Trump’s advertising spend on TV in Texas, Ohio and Florida. In the same three states, Mike Bloomberg accumulated an additional $ 100 million in TV ads in support of Biden. Trump won all three states anyway.
Although Biden’s campaign won the election, it’s hard to argue that they got their money from paid media. Even if TV ads gave them an extra crucial percentage point in key battlefield states, can anyone really claim that $ 600 million in media was the best way to secure those votes? Is it possible that there is a cheaper way? Or a free form?
Refusal of paid political advertising
Those of us who worked on the 2016 presidential campaigns learned the answers first hand. While traditional candidates like Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio spent millions on paid media, Trump hardly did. Instead, he earned $ 5.9 billion in free media coverage, more than any other combined candidate. In the first month of 2016 alone, Trump earned $ 400 million in free media, on what John McCain spent throughout his 2008 presidential campaign.
Trump’s authenticity (or perceived authenticity) and the procession of controversies gave him a similar advantage in 2020. This allowed him to be overtaken by Biden 2 to 1 and still challenge polls by substantial margins and gain about 10 million votes more than in 2016. Anyone who takes a victory from Biden that traditional paid media is back is missing out.
What can other candidates, companies and brands learn from this cycle?
They must learn that all of their content – paid, earned or social – faces more fierce competition for public attention than ever before. Money can help, but it is not what it was before. Authenticity is the real currency of this new era. More than commercial breaks, the new battleground is media coverage between them, which can only be achieved through content that draws attention and leads to genuine dialogue.
Brands from various sectors seem to be recognizing this new paradigm. National TV ad revenue fell more than 7% through September, despite the massive influx of political advertising. The decline was twice as large in the critical field of sports advertising. Spending on TV ads is expected to fall 11% in the year as a whole. In one telling example, spending in the pay TV game industry fell more than 30% in October from the previous month.
Whether these numbers signal lasting trends remains to be seen. But the lessons from this latest election must be clear: the return on investment from the old forms of advertising is collapsing. This is good news for most organizations because it levels the playing field. Getting your message across to the masses no longer requires big spending on manufactured content. If your message is authentic and resonates, other people will bring the content to you – in many cases, for free.
Matt Terrill is a partner at Firehouse Strategies and served as chief of staff in Florida Senator Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign.