Dive summary:
- The Texas power grid is gearing up for a record spike in winter demand next week as a cold spell is expected to boost heating consumption. A new all-time peak winter system record is possible on Monday morning, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) warned on Thursday.
- The network operator also sent a message to market participants on Monday, warning generators to “prepare to preserve fuel to better meet peak loads, and to notify ERCOT any known or anticipated fuel restrictions. “
- ERCOT’s The current peak winter demand record is 65,915 MW, set in January 2018. The network operator issued a Seasonal Resource Adequacy Assessment (SARA) report in November, which forecast a peak winter demand this season of 57,699 MW.
Dive Insight:
The November SARA report identified nearly 83,000 MW of resource capacity that ERCOT expected to be available to meet the peak of winter. But Texas is experiencing a period of low temperatures that should culminate next week, and the network operator wants to be prepared.
“This state climate system is expected to bring Texas the coldest climate we have experienced in decades,” said ERCOT President and CEO Bill Magness in a statement. “With temperatures dropping rapidly, we are already seeing high electricity usage and predicting record breaking in the ERCOT region.”
Higher peak demand may cause electricity prices in Texas to rise. When the state reached its peak demand record in the winter of January 2018, prices soon reached $ 2,200 / MWh.
The ERCOT message to market participants said that the network operator expects temperatures to remain at 32F or below from Thursday to Monday. Generators were asked to review the fuel supply, notify ERCOT “of any known or anticipated fuel restrictions”, identify planned outages and “consider postponing maintenance or early return of the outage”.
Market participants were also asked to review and implement winter preparation procedures and notify ERCOT of “any changes or conditions that could affect the system’s reliability”.
ERCOT also said it is working with transmission operators to “minimize transmission interruptions that could reduce generation availability or otherwise impact the system’s ability to meet demand”.
The Texas Public Utility Commission (PUCT) issued a statement saying it has “been working closely with government agencies, ERCOT and other organizations across the energy sector to prepare for adequate resources in the coming days.”
“The drop in temperatures expected over the next few days will place significant demand on the ERCOT network,” said PUCT President DeAnn Walker. “The response of the electrical system under stress will, as always, require significant coordination.”
A spokesman for Oncor Electric said the state’s largest utility company is monitoring climate impacts and has the resources and personnel available to handle any disruptions. “At the moment, generators across the state are generating enough power to meet demand,” said dealer representative Kerri Dunn by email.
ERCOT is usually a peak summer system, driven by the use of air conditioning. The record peak system demand of 74,820 MW was established in August 2019.