Superinfectious mutant strain of coronavirus ‘most likely to affect children’, says study

The highly infectious mutant strain of the coronavirus found in Kent may be more likely to affect children, scientists warned.

Modelers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine found that the new strain of the virus is 56 percent more infectious.

Even if another national blockade were implemented, it would be “unlikely” to reduce R to less than one, unless schools and universities were also closed, the study concluded.

But the researchers do not believe that the new strain is more deadly or causes more serious illness in adults or children.

The researchers said there is “some evidence that the increase may be particularly pronounced in children”.

The new variant will lead to a wave of coronavirus cases and deaths that will peak in the spring of 2021 in London, southeastern and eastern England, they said.

They said the cases and deaths would peak in the summer of 2021 for the rest of the country.

Schools were due to return on January 4, but Education Secretary Gavin Williamson ordered a week of tests and most students will return on January 11.

Only GCSE and level A students, vulnerable children and children of critical workers will return on time.

Coronavirus is more common among high school students, according to separate data from the National Statistics Office.

Those in grades 7 to 11 are seeing the highest infection rates among the entire population.

Scientists hope to learn much more in the next two weeks about how quickly the variant spreads among children, said Professor Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London and a member of the NERVTAG advisory group.

Throughout the coronavirus pandemic, children were far fewer cases than other respiratory illnesses, including influenza.

The main theory for this is due to the way the coronavirus enters human cells, through a receptor called ACE2, found in many cells of the upper respiratory tract.

As a result, Professor Wendy Barclay of Imperial College London and a member of NERVTAG explained that this made adults ‘easy targets’ compared to children.

This is because the amount of ACE2 that a person expresses naturally and steadily increases over time, with young children having very little.

‘I think that when it comes to children, we have to be careful with what we say. We are not saying that this is a virus that specifically attacks children or is more specific in its ability to infect children, ‘she said.

“But we know that SARS-CoV-2, when it emerged as a virus, was not as effective at infecting children as adults.

“The previous virus had a harder time attaching to ACE2 and getting into cells, so adults, who have plenty of ACE2 in their nose and throat, were easy targets and children were difficult to infect.

“The newer virus has an easier time doing this, so children are just as susceptible to this virus as adults.

‘Given their mixing patterns, you would expect to see more children being infected.

“It is not because the virus is specifically targeting children, but that it is now less inhibited.”

Professor Ferguson added that, if this hypothesis is found to be true, it may explain a “significant proportion” of the increase in transmission.

Speaking at a virtual media briefing presented by the Science Media Center, he said: ‘There is an indication that you are more likely to infect children.

“That may explain some of the differences, but we have not established any causality.”

The new strain of the virus, which experts fear will be more contagious, has led more than 50 countries to impose travel restrictions on the United Kingdom, where it first appeared.

But cases of the new variant have still been reported worldwide: on Friday, Japan confirmed five infections in UK passengers, while cases were also reported in Denmark, Lebanon, Germany, Australia and the Netherlands.

South Africa detected a similar mutation in some infected people, but on Friday it denied British claims that its strain was more infectious or dangerous than that of the United Kingdom.