TALLAHASSEE, Florida (AP) – Democrats can delight in their brilliant prospects in Arizona and Georgia, and may even harbor a glimmer of hope in Texas, but their distress is growing in Florida, which has a reputation as an undecided state, but now it favors Republicans and may be getting more and more out of the reach of Democrats.
As the dispute begins to take hold of Governor Ron DeSantis and US Senator Marco Rubio in 2022, the Democrats’ handicap against the Republicans is deeper than ever, as they try to develop a cohesive strategy and rebuild a plunged state party. in debts and disorder.
Former President Donald Trump’s type of populism helped drive the rise of the Republican Party in Florida, where Trump defeated current President Joe Biden by more than 3 percentage points last fall – more than doubling the advantage he had against Hillary Clinton. Republicans also snatched two seats in Congress and expanded their majorities in parliament.
And that despite the $ 100 million spent by Michael Bloomberg to help Democrats in the state. When the spending count is complete, the last election cycle in Florida is expected to rank as one of the most expensive in the state’s history. The lack of return in Florida could lead the national party and donors to invest their efforts and generosity elsewhere.
“I don’t know anyone who is happy to invest $ 100 million and not win,” said Manny Diaz, the new president of the Florida Democratic Party.
“I’ve heard people ask: did we give up Florida? They say we won the White House with Georgia and Arizona, and we didn’t need Florida, ”said Diaz. “I admit that it shouldn’t be where we are today.”
Steve Schale, a Democratic strategist, said the state party needs to show that “things are moving in a positive direction”.
“One of my concerns is that it will be a huge increase to get people to spend money here again,” said Schale.
Meanwhile, the Florida Democratic Party has accumulated debts of up to $ 860,000 and had to cancel health insurance coverage for party officials at the end of last year – prompting the national party and other state party organizations to provide some. assistance.
Of course, Democrats are losing ground, said Michael Binder, director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida. Democrats have had far more prominent defeats than victories in recent years and have not won a race for governor in a quarter of a century.
“Yes, we have all these fierce disputes – but it is the Republicans who are winning,” said Binder.
In 2008, Florida Democrats enjoyed an advantage of almost 700,000 in voter registration over Republicans, providing considerable protection when the then senator. Barack Obama beat Republican Senator John McCain by less than 205,000 votes in the state. Republicans have reduced that registration mattress considerably in recent years.
Now, the state has only one Democrat in the state post, Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, who is positioning herself to run for a higher position, possibly for governor.
Key Democrats argue that it would be a mistake if national donors left Florida to defend themselves. In the presidential elections, the state has a bonanza of votes in the electoral college – currently 29, but it is likely to increase to 31 because of the state’s population growth.
Diaz, the state party president, is trying to reverse the drop in his voter registration advantage over Republicans. As of January 31, his leadership had declined to just 110,000 voters. Meanwhile, the ranks of non-affiliated voters have grown from 2.1 million in 2008 to more than 3.8 million today.
In the past decade, the state has grown by almost 2.9 million residents, many attracted by the state’s climate and relative accessibility. Many seem to come from more conservative parts of the country, such as the Midwest.
“We are finding that these new registrants are more to the right of the center,” said Ryan Tyson, a Republican researcher and strategist, citing the party’s data analysis. “Democrats are already at a disadvantage with money and candidates, and when you add the disadvantage of the influx of new entrants, it is a difficult hill to climb.”
“I think they are asking people to get into a circular saw,” said Tyson of Democrats who are considering a race across the state.
Susie Wiles, who led the Trump campaign in Florida in 2020, said Democrats can still win with the right candidate, a compelling message and sufficient financial support. She warns her Republican colleagues about “resting on her laurels” and risking losing her own donors.
“I don’t agree with the theory that Florida has turned red. I kind of roll my eyes, honestly, because I know how hard it is to win here, frankly, for either party, ”added Wiles.
Despite the coronavirus pandemic, Republicans launched an election campaign last year that was unchallenged by Democrats, sparking criticism that the Florida Democratic Party was not fighting hard enough to win over voters.
“We need to be constantly present in minority communities, and not just show up to vote,” said state senator Annette Taddeo, a Miami Democrat who is considering running for governor and who has long criticized the state party for not doing more to boost your ranks. She pointed to a drop in Democratic support from Hispanic voters in South Florida as decisive in the presidential race.
Taddeo insists that Democrats can still win in Florida, even though Republicans may now have an advantage.
Other Democrats have not given up, either.
“If you go through the roulette wheel and it turns red nine of the last 10 times, that doesn’t mean that the next round will be red,” said Don Hinkle, a Tallahassee lawyer and Democratic fund-raiser.
But should donors bet on Florida’s history?
“The reality is that we have no choice,” he said. “You can’t run away from a fight – because the stakes are too high.”