Despite the ongoing pandemic and several games being rescheduled throughout the season, we made it to Sunday’s Championship. Both number one seed heads are still alive, as well as AFC’s second seed – but the surprise team is Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ fifth seed. Then again, you can never discard Tom Brady in the postseason, no matter what seed he is. He is the all-time postseason leader in matches (43), completions (1,065), passing yards (11,968), passing touchdowns (77) and Super Bowl titles (6). He will have his hard work for him against the Green Bay Packers, however, who are out to avenge the 38-10 defeat they suffered at the Buccaneers’ hands in week 6 of the regular season.
Interestingly, Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs also clashed in Week 6 of the regular season, when Patrick Mahomes and Co. came out on top, 26-17. Mahomes was dealing with a concussion / head injury last week, but announced on Friday that he canceled the protocol and will play in the AFC Championship Game.
Below, I will give my choices for Championship Sunday, and I will also give my choices in relation to the total. Let’s start!
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 3:05 pm ET (Fox)
Most recent odds:
Green Bay Packers -3.5
The most recent development in this confrontation is that the Bucs will not be able to count on the wide receiver Antonio Brown due to a knee injury. Brady would certainly rather have Brown on the field than not, but Brown took only a 10-yard pass in the divisional round against the New Orleans Saints, and Brady actually made more touchdowns and has a better pass rating when Brown is out. the field in this postseason. In short, I would not allow this development to affect your position in this confrontation.
As for who I’m choosing, I’m going with the Packers. Green Bay won seven games in a row for seven or more points for the first time since 1997, and during that sequence, Aaron Rodgers recorded 24 touchdowns in total and launched just one interception. The Packers had no problem with the Los Angeles Rams in the division round, beating them 32-18. Rodgers and the attack destroyed the Rams’ best defense, which accumulated 484 yards of total attack and 28 first descents. Both numbers are the most allowed by the Rams in one game throughout the season. This offense was on an absolute roll, and last week, the Packers scored 32 points on nine drives – an average of 3.56 points per drive. They have now scored 3.09 points per drive this season, which is set to be the biggest in a single season since 2000.
Another reason I like the Packers is because I think Rodgers has been playing at a big disadvantage. When detractors questioned whether he would get along with first-year coach Matt LaFleur, the Packers went 13-3 and made it to the NFC Championship Game. Then, when detractors ranked the Packers as a top contender to regress in 2020, they again went 13-3 and made it to the NFC championship. In addition, Rodgers played what was objectively his worst game of the season against the Buccaneers, and you know that this is also fresh in your mind. As for the total, the Packers won in six consecutive playoff games (more than 50 total points scored in each game). Over / Under has increased this week, but I will still accept it.
Projected score: Packers 31-24
The choice: Packers -3.5
Up down: More than 52
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Buffalo Bills in Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 18:40 ET (CBS)
Most recent odds:
Kansas City Chiefs -3
In the confrontation of Week 6, the Chiefs won through the ground game. Rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire was responsible for 161 of the Chiefs’ 245 race yards when Kansas City emerged victorious. It was a strange situation, however, as Monday’s clash was rescheduled several times in the past week. You have to give credit to the defense of Bills for how they have been playing lately, as they kept the Baltimore Ravens just three points in the division round. This is tied with the lowest number of Ravens points in any game under John Harbaugh and in any post-season game in the franchise’s history. We know that the Chiefs and Bills have explosive offenses, but Buffalo was not so explosive in the postseason. They were defeated by both teams that played in the playoffs, and – of the four remaining teams in the postseason – the Bills are the last in total attack yards per game (308.5), the last in passing yards per game (244 , 5) and the last in running yards per game (64). The Bills scored just 17 points against the Chiefs earlier this year, scored 17 last week against the Ravens and the Chiefs kept the Cleveland Browns with just 17 points last week as well. Bills will have to score a lot of points on Sunday and get out of that number 17, and I’m not sure that will happen.
The Chiefs have been a terrible team to bet on recently. In the last eight matches of Mahomes, the Heads are 8-0 and all eight wins come by six points or less. Since week 9, they are the NFL’s worst 1-8 against the spread. However, this spread is not very large, so I think the Chiefs can cover this week. Bills had an incredible season and are an elite team in the AFC, but it is difficult to go against Mahomes and the Chiefs. As for the total, everyone seems to expect offensive fireworks in this confrontation – which makes me think that we are not going to achieve that. William Hill has an Over / Under with 54 points, which is quite high. My inclination is down.
Projected score: Chiefs 28-21
The choice: Bosses -3
Up down: Less than 54