If I asked you to predict 12 and a half months ago, when America began to determine whether suicides and deaths in traffic accidents would increase or decrease in 2020, you would have imagined that there would be much more of the former and much less of the latter. And when I say “you”, I mean all of you. It seemed a fait accompli that mass unemployment plus intense social isolation plus the stress of multiple disruptions in life (for example, closing schools) that accompanied the pandemic of living would lead some people to take their own lives that in normal times would be well. And because many businesses and workplaces were closed and so many Americans were afraid to get together and risk infection, there would be far less reason to drive and therefore less dangerous car accidents.
Elementary logic in both cases. Also wrong in both cases.
First, traffic deaths:
The National Nonprofit Security Council estimates in a report released on Thursday that 42,060 people died in vehicle accidents in 2020, an 8% increase over 2019 and the first jump in four years.
In addition, the mortality rate per 100 million miles driven has skyrocketed 24%, the biggest annual percentage increase since the council started collecting data in 1923 …
Last year’s deaths were more since 2007, when 43,945 people died in vehicle accidents. In addition, the safety council estimates that 4.8 million people were injured in accidents last year.
Traffic deaths increased last year, although Americans drove about 13 percent less miles than in 2019. How?
Circumstantial evidence points to greater risk on the part of drivers. USA Today notes that the Minnesota State Patrol issued twice as many fines for driving at more than 100 mph last year than during 2019. Precisely because the roads are less congested, drivers are driving like maniacs, which means more fatal accidents. Hit a pole at 40 mph and you can survive; hit the same pole at 80 mph and no. Pandemic stress is probably also contributing: a driver who is depressed and has a lot to worry about is a more distracted driver. And the increased use of alcohol and drugs during the pandemic should mean that more of the people behind the wheel are under the influence.
In short, it is basically the Thunderdome on American roads. Fewer people are driving, but the average driver you encounter is more likely to be in a dangerously bad space. Result: More deaths.
Explaining the decline in suicides is more difficult:
Politicians have repeatedly told us that the blockades were causing an increase in the number of suicide deaths. We keep asking to see the data. Now, we have this and, apparently, that was not true. In 2020, suicide deaths were lower than in the previous three years. https://t.co/YbLCmd0c3o pic.twitter.com/PNEshYyQfV
– Elizabeth Jacobs, PhD 🏴☠️ (@TheAngryEpi) April 4, 2021
This seems so unlikely that you wonder if the data is correct. I must note that it is “preliminary”, so it may be eventually revised upwards. But suppose it is necessary. What could explain this? I asked this question on Twitter and received a series of smart responses:
1. Although suicides have decreased, fatal overdoses have increased. Some people who were depressed and who may have ended up committing suicide because of this may have been lost due to ODs before they could, due to the heavier use of drugs.
2. Likewise, some people, especially older people, who would have died of suicide ended up succumbing to COVID before they could.
3. Despite mass unemployment, the finances of some lower-class people may have temporarily improved due to stimulus checks and rising federal unemployment. A Gallup poll conducted last June, two months after the blockades began, found more Americans optimistic about their finances than in 2017. Some who may have succumbed to despair and killed themselves due to poverty in normal times, may have received relief for COVID Relief.
4. Forcing people to isolate themselves with their families may have led them to have more meaningful social interactions, which improved their mood. I have heard many parents say how much they enjoyed quality extra time with their children last year, despite the difficulties in educating them. Some adults who lost their lives due to the pressures of work may have obtained an unexpected perspective check by spending more time with their loved ones and regaining the will to live.
5, Suicidal people rarely commit acts in front of other people. Even if someone who is suicidal does not enjoy the extra time with the family, for purely logistical reasons, quarantine leaves you with less time alone. As Alex Griswold says, spouses and children are in a position where they are practically forced to care for each other 24 hours a day. Fewer suicide opportunities mean less suicide.
6. Some of us do better on our own than when we are forced to mix with others. Someone with social anxiety who no longer needs to go to the office every day and feel “judged” by the people around them can have their stress lessened after being allowed to work from home. Or perhaps it is the opposite – people who keep quiet and are depressed because they have little social contact before the pandemic, suddenly saw other people approaching them to say hi as pandemic loneliness spread through the population. That little bit of extra virtual socialization may have been enough to prevent some suicides.
7. Many Twitter friends pointed out that knowing that other people are isolated may have caused some depressed people to feel less bad about themselves. It is easy to despair when things seem to be going well for everyone except you; the “what’s wrong with me, why can’t I be happy?” FOMO Factor aggravates misery. But when everyone is unhappy for the same reason, the depressed person no longer judges himself with such severity. Everyone is in the same boat all of a sudden, even though everyone is in their small, isolated hut. Eliminating the fear of losing may have saved some lives.
What’s sinister about all of this is that most factors point to an increase in suicide once the pandemic is over. The FOMO factor will return dramatically when most Americans start to celebrate; loners will be forced to return to the office in many cases; families will disperse during the day; federal generosity will end. Of course, more socialization opportunities too avoid some suicides of people who would have killed themselves if they were forced to isolate themselves at home for much longer. But if we had to predict now whether more or less people will die by their own hands in 2021 than last year, I don’t know if “less” is a strong bet just because the country will soon be returning to normal.
By the way, look again at the 2020 column in the tweet above. Deaths have increased dramatically in a diverse number of categories, from diabetes to stroke, Alzheimer’s disease, heart disease and “unintended injuries”. One reason for this may be the listing of comorbidities as contributing causes on death certificates in cases of COVID. Another, I think, is people’s greater reluctance to seek medical treatment for diseases unrelated to COVID during the pandemic, for fear of being infected in the hospital. I remember EMTs in New York City reporting last spring that the number of people who would be found dead in their homes after calling 911 was alarmingly higher than in a normal year. Presumably, because many Americans tried to control their pre-existing illnesses in the best possible way on their own, trying to stay away from doctors’ offices, and only finally asked for help when they reached the crisis point. COVID did not cause these deaths, but it was a major indirect contributor.