Despite claims of a “mass exodus” from California last year, a new study released on Thursday by a non-partisan study group found that the 2020 withdrawals from the most populous American state largely reflected historical patterns.
California Policy Lab, which has partnered with state governments to provide data on key issues, said in a press release announcing the report’s findings that most of the California resident changes in 2020 happened within the state.
The group found that the most significant change recorded was a drop in the number of people who moved to California.
The city of San Francisco, however, saw a record number of people abandoning the coronavirus pandemic.
From March to the end of 2020, net outflows from the northern California city increased 649% compared to the same period in 2019, from 5,200 departures to 38,800, Policy Lab reported.
“Although a mass exodus from California clearly did not happen in 2020, the pandemic changed some historical patterns, for example, fewer people moved to the state to replace those who left,” said Natalie Holmes, Policy Lab researcher and a student undergraduate at the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California-Berkeley.
Holmes added: “At the county level, however, San Francisco is experiencing a unique and dramatic exodus, which is causing 50% or 100% increases in internal migration from the Bay Area to some counties in the Sierras.”
Since 2015, the proportion of people actually leaving the state has risen from 16% to 18%.
Evan White, executive director of the Policy Lab at UC Berkeley, said that while the state has not yet seen evidence that wealthy residents are leaving the state in large numbers, withdrawals from higher-income groups can negatively impact the economy of the state in the future.
“Unfortunately, as the state relies heavily on the income tax of the über-rich, the departure of even a small number of wealthy people can negatively impact revenues if they are not replaced by new entrants,” White said in a statement.
The study was based on data from The University of California consumer credit panel, which includes information about adults with a credit history who have lived in California since 2004.
The data set includes a person’s zip code and credit information, which are updated quarterly, according to Friday’s press release.
Policy Lab defines a change as a change in postal code from one quarter to the next, which means that there may be data delays if a change in address is not reported immediately.