“A potential outbreak of severe storms, including several strong long-trail tornadoes, heavy hail and damaging wind, will exist Thursday through Thursday night in a part of the lower Mississippi valley and southeastern states,” said the Storm Prediction Center (SPC ).
Long-haul tornadoes are tornadoes that remain in the ground for a long period of time. Most tornadoes stay on the ground for just a few minutes, but with some serious events, there can be tornadoes on the ground for hours. This type of tornado is known to cause widespread damage.
The latest forecast shows a level 4 “moderate risk” for severe storms in northern Mississippi, southwestern Tennessee and northwestern Alabama. This level 4 of 5 in the risk category means that “severe generalized storms are likely”, according to the SPC, with great hail, winds and damaging tornadoes, all possible.
This “moderate risk” area includes major cities like Memphis and Nashville in Tennessee, Jackson in Mississippi and Birmingham and Huntsville in Alabama.
“The ingredients will be combined on Thursday for another severe weather outbreak in the South,” said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers. “The very humid air in the Gulf of Mexico combined with a strong upward movement will create several rounds of severe weather, including rotating storms that can produce tornadoes.”
The ingredients were there last week and the tornadoes came out, but not as strong as meteorologists thought possible. None of the 49 tornadoes was stronger than an EF-2 on a scale of 0 to 5.
Although the right atmospheric ingredients were present, they did not mix precisely enough to produce the violent tornadoes predicted last Thursday.
“It’s like if you put too many carrots in the chicken soup, you would end up getting a sweet carrot soup and not chicken soup,” said Myers.
Thursday can be terrible and possibly another “high risk” day if the right mix of ingredients is combined.
“Given the prediction of a very favorable environment across this region and the potential for several supercells, a high-risk upgrade for strong to potentially violent long-haul tornadoes may be needed in a later perspective update,” said the SPC.
The tornado chance appears on the first Wednesday night
Another active climate pattern that is being established across the country is the introduction of storm systems that will instigate more storms.
A new storm system located in the southwestern United States will be launched on the plains on Wednesday night. This will be the main motivator for this new severe weather event.
As of Wednesday night, SPC is forecasting the chance of bad weather from central Texas to Mississippi, with greater risk in central and northeastern Texas. This part of Texas faces a level 3 of 5, “increased risk” category for severe weather.
During the day, sparse storms can explode in parts of central Texas, with more widespread rain near the Texas Panhandle.
Wednesday night will become more active as a line of storms forms, bringing the risk mainly of strong winds and hail, but also the chance of tornadoes further east.
Flood clocks are currently in place for locations near the central Gulf coast, including New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Gulfport, Mississippi.
Severe storm threat will be greater Thursday
Wednesday’s storms will move eastward, centering on Thursday in Deep South, as the area of strong storm risk is likely to expand and become more significant. Heavy storms will be possible from the Gulf Coast to the far north of Ohio.
Some stronger storms may be possible in this risky area on Thursday morning, but more active weather will start in the afternoon, when several supercell storms may form.
“Right now, the best potential for strong tornadoes seems to extend from parts of central MS / north to west / middle TN and center / north of AL, especially Thursday afternoon and evening, as storms generally move to the northeast, “said the SPC on Wednesday afternoon.
The forecast shows that atmospheric conditions will be ripe and “will support supercells with low-level mesocyclones capable of producing strong tornadoes and large hail,” said the SPC.
During the early hours of Thursday, the storms are expected to evolve into a line as they spread across parts of Alabama and Georgia.
On Friday, most of the South is expected to dry out, except for parts of Georgia and the Carolinas, where light rains and isolated storms can persist.