The South is preparing for another possible tornado outbreak just a week later 49 tornadoes confirmed tore the region on St. Patrick’s Day.
About 33 million people will be at risk of severe storms on Thursday, which can cause strong, long-lasting tornadoes, hailstones the size of baseballs or greater and damaging winds of more than 75 mph, according to Forecast Center for Storms of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Possible rains and storms are expected to start on Thursday morning, which will decrease in the afternoon, preparing the ground for a more volatile atmosphere later in the day. Heavy storms are likely to start at lunchtime in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi and then move eastward during the day, posing the risk of severe storms in Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia.
Several major metropolitan areas, including New Orleans; Jackson, Mississippi; Memphis, Tennessee; Nashville, Tennessee; Birmingham, Alabama; and Atlanta are in the threat zone for these severe storms. Some of these cities are still cleaning up the damage from the tornado streak that hit the same region last week.
Adding to the danger is the fact that storms are likely to be moving very fast, which can reduce the preparation time for people placed under warning to seek shelter. The rapid movements of storms can also mean that tornadoes will be able to cover greater distances – what meteorologists call “long-distance” tornadoes. There was a case last week, where a tornado remained on the ground for almost 35 continuous miles.
There is also a concern that these storms could last from Thursday to Friday night. Night tornadoes are twice as likely to be fatal. Meteorologists ask people in danger zones to make sure that their cell phones are charged and that emergency alerts are turned on to ensure that they will hear tornado alerts if they are asleep.
There will also be heavy storms on Wednesday afternoon and evening, which can affect 11 million people. Included in this warning is Dallas, which can see storms with heavy hail, strong winds and isolated tornadoes. The storms will begin to skirt the I-35 corridor on Wednesday afternoon, then form in a line of storms that can persist through the night as they move eastward.
This could be the start of an active tornado season with a La Niña standard in place that can overwhelm the severe season until the early summer months. Some of the most active tornado seasons, including the 2011 Tornado Super Outbreak, occurred historically during the La Niña years.
There is also evolving research that establishes the connection between climate change and tornadoes.
One area of research suggests that the traditional tornado alley, characterized by the Great Plains, may be shifting eastward to the most populous and most vulnerable areas in the South and Southeast.
A second area of research postulates that warming the atmosphere can make the days of tornado eruption more severe. In other words, although tornado outbreaks may not become more frequent, when they do occur there may be more tornadoes that are also more intense.