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Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analysis, describes all of his choices for the Wild Card Weekend. He will add any additional bets he makes to the Action app in real time – he has a record 352-262-4 (57.3%) on the NFL choices he tracked – but we will also add them to this file as he does them.
Note that your choices are ordered when the market closes. In most cases, this is when the game starts.
NFL picks and predictions
Tom Brady Most Pass Yards +600
I like Brady for this price – based on my 10,000 player simulations, I would define his line closer to +400.
It has a combination of solid floor and ceiling that will allow you to thrive in this market. It has been launched for 390, 348 and 399 yards in the last three games. He’s more than capable of putting a grand total to give you a chance here.
His high floor will also allow him to take advantage if no other quarterback “shoots” this weekend. I would bet up to +500.
Here are the odds and probabilities projected for all 12 expected beginners based on my simulations:
Colts +6.5 vs. accounts
The Bills opened as favorites of 6.5 points and, despite seeing constant action throughout the week – taking 60% of the bets and 59% of the money on Friday (check the public bet data in real time) – the line has not changed.
I think the sharp action is coming on the Colts based on how they face the Bills.
Josh Allen destroyed player coverage this season – out of 42 qualified quarterbacks, he is the first in expected added points (EPA) for attempting against him, according to Sports Info Solutions. But he is in 15th place against the zone, and the Colts were left defenseless by zone at the fifth highest rate in the league.
I don’t think the Colts can really shut down Allen, but their heavy zone approach and game creators DeForest Buckner, Darius Leonard and Xavier Rhodes should be able to slow Allen down enough to keep the game close.
When the Colts have the ball, Jonathan Taylor will be the focal point – only Titans running back Derrick Henry overcame Taylor since week 11. And the Bills’ running defense is his only real weakness, ranking 17th in the Football Outsiders DVOA 22nd in EPA per trial, and I hope the Colts explore that.
Philip Rivers is probably not able to beat the Bills alone, but he ranks eighth (out of 34) quarterbacks in EPA / play. The Bills try to generate pressure through the blitz, as evidenced by their rate of 35.5% (ninth highest), but it is a strategy that is unlikely to get Rivers out of the game when he gets rid of the ball with the sixth fastest rate (2 , 52 seconds by NextGenStats).
He’s also been clicking with TY Hilton lately. Hilton has been in sixth place in the EPA among wide receivers since Week 12. The Colts can move Hilton around the formation to avoid closing Bill at the Tre’Davious White curve at times.
I’m projecting the beads at -4.5 here. They are the best team and should expect to win by a field goal, but +6.5 is a little inflated – especially considering that six has become a more valuable number since the NFL accumulated extra points in 2015.
I would bet up to +6.
Tom Brady faced the sixth lowest pressure index in the league. That could change this week when he faces Washington’s top four.
It is worth mentioning that Brady was in 32nd place (out of 38 defenders) in the success rate when facing the pressure this season. And the football team’s attack is unlikely to do much better against a Bucs defense that is in fifth place in the DVOA.
I hope this is a low-scoring game and project the total to 43.5, so I would bet up to 44.
Terry McLaurin Less than 68.5 Yards Rec.
McLaurin is playing with an ankle injury and will be under 100%. Last week, he managed to reach just 40 yards in seven receptions.
Alex Smith’s conservative playing style also deprives McLaurin of his great playing ability. Smith tends to target running back JD McKissic and tight end Logan Thomas at a higher rate than other Washington defenders, which detracts somewhat from McLaurin’s value when he is below the center.
Mitch Trubisky with less than 1.5 TD passes (-115)
Trubisky seemed to resurrect his career in weeks 13-16, leading the Bears in a 3-1 race to help them reach the playoffs. But he faced the league’s three worst defenses (in the DVOA) during that four-game period, and predictably failed against the Packers in Week 17 with 252 yards, an interception and no touchdown.
I have the right line for him to throw less than 1.5 touchdowns set at -155 against a Saints defense that is second in the DVOA against the pass.
Titans +3.5 vs. Ravens
Ryan Tannehill proved that 2019 was no accident by posting the second best EPA / game rate among all defenders in 2020.
He thrived on a system of Titans that relies on Derrick Henry and the action of play. The Titans ’29th ranked defense is unlikely to stop Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, but the Titans’ explosive attack will give them a chance to win in any game script (leader or final).
Their last two meetings against Baltimore prove that:
- Week 11: Titans lost 13-21 to the fourth quarterback, then returned to win 30-24 in overtime.
- 2019 Playoffs: Titans dominated all four quarters to win 28-12.
This must be a high-scoring game that can be summed up by a goal attempt from either side. I like the idea of getting +3.5 here, but I wouldn’t bet on anything lower.
Jarvis Landry with less than 63.5 recreational yards
This number is inflated and I can’t figure out why.
Landry has only surpassed that number once in the last 10 games. And the Browns ‘attack is likely to have a battle against Steelers’ No. 1 defense in DVOA. This is not only Baker Mayfield’s first playoff, but the Browns will also lack coach Kevin Stefanski.