The NFL betting markets are generally extremely efficient at this time of year when it comes to sides and totals, so the biggest advantages are often found in players’ props.
Below are the four props that I see the biggest advantage for the Conference championship, as well as the spreads and totals I’m betting on. I may end up getting additional props before the kickoff, so if you’re looking for more action, be sure to follow me on the Action Network app.
Editor’s note: Bills-Chiefs’ choices have alternated over Bucs-Packers.
+3 Accounts; More than 54
I supported the Chiefs -6 in their eventual 26-16 win over the Bills in Week 6, but I don’t expect a repeat of that result from one side or from a total perspective.
From a broader perspective, Bills is now the best team in every way, except record: they are fourth in the overall Football Outsiders DVOA, while Chiefs is sixth. The gap widens when we look only at weighted DVOA (which ponders referral games more heavily), since Buffalo is number 1, while Kansas City remains number 6. The Chiefs have a small advantage over attacked DVOA Bills in attack (third vs. fifth), but the accounts have considerable advantages in defense (eighth against 24) and special teams (second against 11).
Most importantly, the Chiefs are struggling heavily with situational football.
Chefs are in last place in the defense in conversion rate of the red zone and DVOA of the red zone, while Bills is in 13th and 9th place. The Chiefs also finished last in a few yards on both sides of the ball, which is an advantage you don’t want to give to the Bills, who don’t put much emphasis on running on either side of the ball, but have been good at defending short yards (seventh) and respectable in attack (17th). And while both teams are in the top five in DVOA in the third / fourth down attack, the Bills are also in the top five in defense, while the Chiefs are in 19th.
Ultimately, it’s Kansas City’s defensive crash that is most worrying: it was sixth in the DVOA in the first half of the season, but 29th in the second half. And while the defense was well configured to defend an attack by the Browns with the Jarvis Landry slot receiver as their greatest threat, the Chiefs could fight the Bills’ deepest receiving body.
The Chiefs have faced Tyrann Mathieu in safety much more throughout the second half of the season in place of fighter Juan Thornhill, but used Mathieu closer to the line of scrimmage and in the spot against Landry last week. Mathieu gave up -4 yards on six targets with a general choice, and Landry finished with 20 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. But the Kansas City cornerbacks allowed for a 15-out of 18 targets in 153 yards and a touchdown.
The Chiefs’ defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, did a good job of helping them throughout the season – they allowed the second smallest number of yards for wide receivers during the regular season – mainly using two-depth projectiles. But if he plays two-deep man, he exposes himself to the threat of Josh Allen’s run, and the Bills can use four wide looks to cut Chiefs at vertical seams if they leave their cornerbacks close to the line and play two -Deep zone .
On the other side of the ball, Buffalo blitzed Mahomes only once in 34 relegations (2.9%) in that first match. And despite their toe injury, the Bills are likely to employ a similar game plan instead of the heavy approach they used against the Ravens (30.0%). Buffalo improved from 16th in the defensive DVOA during the first half of the season to seventh in the second half thanks to some schematic changes made possible mainly by the return of linebacker Matt Milano, who did not play due to an injury in the week 6 clash.
Although I didn’t expect Buffalo to be successful enough to keep this game below the total based on his defense, the Bills are now able to get one or two major stops that can allow them to maintain an attack distance to win what should be a game of heads or tails that must clean up the total. I like up to 55 points.
Darrel Williams with less than 36.5 yards (-105)
Williams received 13 of 15 defense runs with Clyde Edwards-Helaire last week, but Edwards-Helaire is scheduled to return this week and had an average 69% participation in defense runs when active (excluding week 13 when he was active, but did not play due to injury).
The Chiefs have an average of 19.5 defensive loads per game this season, meaning the most likely result for Williams is 5-8 loads. He has averaged 4.3 yards per load this season and 3.8 in his career, so his total yards should reach the top in the mid-30s, except for another Edwards-Helaire injury.
You can bet this line on FanDuel at the time of writing.
Limit: Less than 35.5 (-120)
Devin Singletary over 40.5 yards from Rush (-115)
In 14 games without Zack Moss (out, knee), Bills’ running backs averaged 80.1 run yards per game with a median of 75.5. Singletary played 85.7% of the snaps and controlled 81.8% of the backfield loads last week, which puts his true projected median close to 60 yards.
The market is slightly above Buffalo’s average of 10.5 backfields this postseason, but that came against two racing saves from the top 12 in terms of DVOA in the Colts (ninth) and Ravens (12th), while the Chiefs are in 31st.
This is available at FanDuel early Sunday afternoon.
Limit: Over 49.5 (-120)
Buccaneers +3.5; More than 51.5
Can the Packers beat a team by more than a field goal that crushed them, 38-10, in week 6? Maybe, but I’m willing to pay to find out.
Bucs are the best team in terms of overall Football Outsiders DVOA, and are in the top five in attack and defense, leaving the Packers defense in 17th place as the weakest unit in this game (apart from the special teams, which are both lower-10).
Bucs showed the ability to limit Packers’ offense by keeping them at their lowest total point (10) and total yardage of the season (201). Under pressure from cornerback Carlton Davis, Tampa Bay also did better against No. 1 wide receivers (sixth in DVOA) than even the opponent of the Green Bay Divisional Round (Los Angeles, 13th in DVOA). The Bucs proved their courage by holding Michael Thomas on four targets and 28 passing routes last week, while Adams posted a 9/66/1 line on 10 targets and 33 routes against Jalen Ramsey and Co.
Although the Bucs’ defense is capable of doing what the Rams could not, the most compelling reason for the Bucs to be able to resist this game is their attack. The Packers took first place in offensive scoring during the regular season (31.8 per game) and scored 30 or more points in 13 of 17 games, so the Bucs’ ability to accumulate points (30.8 per game, third) be crucial.
Green Bay also tends to start fast, leading the NFL in scoring in the first half (18.7 per game), but Tampa Bay is the league’s second highest offensive score in the second half (15.4 per game).
Even without Antonio Brown (out, knee), the Bucs have enough passing weapons to force Packers’ defensive coordinator Mike Pettine to maintain extra defenses on the pitch. This is his favorite scheme, but it wasn’t always the case against the Rams last week (or the Titans in the Packers’ impressive 40-14 win). That should open the Tampa Bay racing game, which recorded 35 runs for 127 yards and a touchdown against New Orleans’ second race defense last week.
On the other hand, Bucs will not be able to play as much with the press as they did against Drew Brees, who is averse to the field. They will have to revert to their signature zone blitz scheme with more coverage off, so it is unlikely that the defense will produce four more 20 point spins shown as they did against the Saints. The Packers fired a somewhat similar (albeit less blitzing) Rams scheme for 507 yards and 32 points last week, so overall, there should be no scoring points in this game, despite the cold weather at Lambeau Field.
For the reasons outlined above, I like Bucs and here. Although the winners of the regular season clash have reached 55-39 in a playoff rematch since 2002, I don’t think Tampa Bay will be able to win with the defense this time. However, the Saints were the only team throughout the year to beat the Bucs by more than one field goal throughout the season, and only nine of Tom Brady’s 43 postseason starts (20.9%) ended with his team losing by more than three points. Meanwhile, Rodgers came out with a win of more than three in just 11 of 20 playoff games (55.0%), and for what it’s worth, he lost his last three conference championships by an average score of 36.3- 21.0 (although none came at Lambeau).
Limits: Buccaneers +3; More than 53.5
Equanimeous St. Brown with less than 1.5 receptions (-215)
St. Brown picked up more than one pass in a game only once throughout the season in 13 games. He ran 11 routes against the Rams in the Divisional Round and averaged 8.6 routes per game this season, according to Pro Football Focus, which is not enough to project him close to two catches, given the average of his career of 0.08 receptions per race.
On 11 routes, he projected 0.88 receptions. And in his season average of 8.6 run routes, he would project 0.69 catches. You can currently bet this line on DraftKings.
Limit: Less than 1.5 (-900)
Cameron Brate over 2.5 receptions (-140)
Brate has managed three or more passes in six of his last nine games, including four footprints in each of the Bucs’ two postseason disputes. He did 38 post-season routes to Rob Gronkowski’s 37, and with Antonio Brown (knee) out, we could see two more tight Bucs final sets.
This is available on DraftKings.
Limit: Over 2.5 (-200)