MADRID (AP) – While most of Europe began 2021 with curfews or home orders, Spanish authorities insist that the new coronavirus variant, which wreaks havoc elsewhere, is not to blame for a acute resurgence of cases and that the country can avoid a total blockade, even with its hospitals full.
The government has been relentlessly fighting drastic domestic confinement, such as the one that paralyzed the economy for almost three months in the spring of 2020, the last time Spain can claim victory over the stubborn rising curve of cases.
Infection rates declined in October, but never fully decreased as the summer increased. Cases started to rise again before the end of the year. Last month, 14-day rates more than doubled, from 188 cases per 100,000 residents on December 10 to 522 per 100,000 on Thursday.
Nearly 39,000 new cases were reported on Wednesday and more than 35,000 on Thursday, some of the biggest daily increases to date.
The increase is again threatening the intensive care unit’s capacity and overwhelming exhausted medical workers. Some facilities have already suspended elective surgery, and the city of Valencia reopened a makeshift hospital used last year.
Unlike Portugal, which is in a month-long lockout on Friday and doubling the fines for those who don’t wear masks, authorities in Spain insist that it will be sufficient to take short, highly localized measures that restrict social gatherings without affecting the entire economy.
“We know what we have to do and we are doing it,” Health Minister Salvador Illa said at a news conference on Wednesday, dismissing a national order for home confinement and defending “measures that were successful during the second wave.”
Fernando Simón, the government’s leading virus expert, blamed the recent spike in cases at Christmas and New Year celebrations. “The new variant, even if it has an impact, will be marginal, at least in our country,” he said this week.
But many independent experts disagree and say that Spain is not able to perform widespread sample sequencing to detect how the new variants have spread, and that 88 confirmed cases and almost 200 suspected cases that the authorities say have been imported from the UK are underestimating the real impact.
Dr. Rafael Bengoa, former director of health systems for the World Health Organization, told the Associated Press that the government should immediately enact “a strict but short confinement” of four weeks.
“Trying to do as little as possible so as not to affect the economy or for political reasons does not get us where we should be,” said Bengoa, who also oversaw a deep reform in the Basque regional health system.
The situation in Spain contrasts sharply with other European countries who also showed similar sudden jumps in cases, increasingly attributable to the most contagious variant first detected in the UK
The Netherlands, which has been closed for a month, has seen the rate of infections begin to fall. But with 2% to 5% of the new COVID-19 cases of the new variant, the country has been demanding since Friday that air passengers from the United Kingdom, Ireland and South Africa provide not only a negative PCR test done within 72 hours. before departure but also a result of rapid antigen testing immediately before takeoff.
France, where a recent study of 100,000 positive tests resulted in about 1% of infections with the variant, is imposing curfews as early as 6pm., and Health Minister Oliver Veran did not rule out an order to stay at home if the situation worsens.
Existing blockages or the prospect of mandatory confinement have not been questioned or have become a political issue in other European countries.
Ireland instituted a complete block after generalized infections were found to be related to the new variant. Italy has a color-coded system that activates a strict block at its highest level – or red, although no area is currently in that stage.
In the UK, scientific evidence for the new variant has silenced some critics of the restrictions and encouraged Prime Minister Boris Johnson to impose measures that are rigid, but slightly milder than the country’s first blockade.. People were forced to stay at home, except for limited essential travel and exercise, and schools were closed, except for a few exceptions.
In Germany, where the 7-day continuous average of new daily cases has recently skyrocketed to 26 per 100,000 people, many senior officials argue that the existing strict confinement order needs to be strengthened and extended beyond its current end of January Expiry .
The Nordic countries have rejected totally mandatory blocks, instead imposing strict limitations on meetings and certain activities. Residents were asked to follow specific recommendations to limit the spread of the virus.
In Sweden, the issue is legal and political, as there is no law that would allow the government to restrict the mobility of the population. In urging residents to avoid going to the gym or library, Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven said last month, “We don’t believe in a total blockade,” before adding, “We are following our strategy.”
Policymakers in Spain appear to be taking a similar approach, although it remains to be seen whether the results will prove to be wrong. On Thursday, they insisted that vaccines will soon reach “cruising speed”.
But Bengoa, a former WHO expert, said vaccinations will not solve the problem immediately.
“Trying to live with the virus and this data for months is to live with very high mortality and the possibility that new variants will be created,” he said, adding that the new variant of the virus widely identified in the UK could make the version starts to look “good”.
Dr. Salvador Macip, a researcher at the University of Leicester and the Open University of Catalonia, says that the combination of spiral infections and uncertainty about the new variants should be sufficient for a more restrictive approach, but that pandemic fatigue is taking these more difficult decisions for countries like Spain, with polarized politics.
“People are tired of making sacrifices that don’t get us anywhere, because they see that they will have to repeat them,” said Macip.
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Associated Press writers across Europe contributed.
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