With only official confirmation missing, SpaceX appears to be preparing the fourth full-size starship prototype to attempt a Raptor static fire test. and launch on the same day.
That promising day in question is today – Friday, March 26. If everything goes according to plan, the starship’s SN11 serial number will fire its three Raptors, checking its health after an engine was apparently changed on Wednesday. Possibly only an hour or two later, after detecting and retaining liquid oxygen and methane propellant, the Starship prototype could take off on SpaceX’s fourth high-altitude test flight.
At the end of March 24, SpaceX rolled the Raptor SN46 engine from its factory in Boca Chica to the launch pad, where Starship SN11 is installed in one of two suborbital launch assemblies. The movement of the engine and the subsequent installation was a surprise, as no one was able to catch an implicit removal of the Starship SN11’s engine in the previous two or three days (extremely thick fog being the most likely cause).
The implicit problem with the Raptor that was removed is probably responsible for a delay of several days in the launch that followed Monday’s seemingly successful static fire. After this test, the launch of the SN11 was initially scheduled for Tuesday or Wednesday, only to slip day by day as the week progressed. SN11 first rolled onto the launch pad on March 8, just 18 days ago, so launch delays are not a big surprise, given that the current factory launch record for a three-engine spacecraft is 33 days , three static fires, and an engine change.
If SN11 manages a static fire on the same day and launches on March 26, it will still break that record by almost 50%. To some extent, the achievement is also not without precedent. On March 3, the SN10 spacecraft aborted its first attempt to launch true milliseconds after the Raptor’s ignition, when the rocket’s flight computer detected indications that they were producing too much momentum. Surprisingly, instead of clearing the launch attempt, SpaceX loosened the Starship SN10 thrust limit parameters and tried again, successfully taking off just three hours after the abortion.
Despite abortion and immediate hands-free recycling, Starship SN10 subsequently became the first prototype of its kind to be launched at 10 km (6.2 mi), free-falling back to land and landing in one piece. Minutes later, a fire and a more difficult-than-expected landing conspired to make the SN10 explode, but the test flight was still a great success. Simultaneously, the flight indicated that starships are technically capable of flying successfully hours after the post-ignition launch abortion, demonstrating an extraordinary level of robustness for grouped high-performance rocket engines.
As such, although it is probably reasonable to assume that Starship SN11 will not launched today, SN10 proved that there is a non-zero chance of a static fire and interval launch hours. In addition, given how close SN10 is to unequivocal success (ie, a smooth, survivable landing), the SN11 spacecraft has the best chance of launching, landing, and going through the ordeal. without blowing up.
The third static fire on the SN11 spacecraft and the first launch attempt are currently scheduled for a time between 7:00 am and 7:30 pm CDT (UTC-5). Stay tuned for updates while we wait for official confirmation from SpaceX and an evacuation notice from the residents of Vila de Boca Chica.