South Korea’s population falls for the first time, probably worsened by Covid-19

Leading the population drop is the low number of births in South Korea. Births have fallen to record levels every year since 2016. The average number of children a woman will have during her life in South Korea was 1.1 per year the lowest fertility rate in the world, according to a United Nations Population Fund survey of more than 200 countries.

Statistics from Korea, South Korea’s statistics arm, initially predicted that the country’s population would decline in 2021 after taking into account other factors of population change, such as immigration.

But the pandemic, which destroyed jobs and forced couples to postpone marriage, probably weighed on birth rates, especially in South Korea, where most childbirths occur after marriage, said Choi Seong-soo, professor of sociology from Yonsei University in Seoul.

“It is too early to see these factors impacting birth rates now,” said Choi. “But we hope to see the effects occur by 2021 and 2022.”

A report by the Bank of Korea released in December said the Covid-19 shock could have a permanent impact on the country’s birth rates, as delays in procreation become permanent decisions to renounce children entirely.

South Korea recorded 275,815 births and 307,764 deaths in 2020, according to the Ministry of Interior and Security. The country, which has kept outbreaks relatively stable, reported 981 deaths related to Covid-19.

With fewer newborns, South Korea is expected to have the world’s largest proportion of individuals aged 65 and over by 2045, according to Statistics Korea, surpassing Japan, currently one of the oldest nations in the world.

Japan made preschool free and urged companies to allow employees to leave on time. But after a slight increase in the past decade, the country’s birth rate has fallen in each of the past four years.

South Korea’s aging population is expected to hamper the country’s growth as its working-age population declines. One study estimates that South Korea’s potential production capacity will drop by about one percentage point from 2024 due to demographic changes.

The pandemic highlighted South Korea’s growing dependence on low-income immigrant workers, especially in the agriculture and basic manufacturing sectors, after air travel outages abruptly closed the door on many temporary workers. Lawmakers began to look at immigration as a response to changing population dynamics, with a focus on bringing qualified foreign workers into the country.

Government officials estimate that immigrants and temporary foreign residents will account for 6.9% of the total population in 2040, up from 4.3% last year.

The government poured tens of billions of dollars to raise the country’s birth rate, which has been a priority policy for many South Korean leaders, including President Moon Jae-in.

In some smaller rural cities outside the Seoul metropolitan area, local governments have distributed money to families with several children. One city is considering providing a $ 47,000 housing purchase stipend for families with three or more children. The country’s competitive real estate lottery for the purchase of new apartments – a system based on randomly drawn points – is strongly distorted to benefit families with more children.

The efforts did not produce a turnaround. Meanwhile, many young women were disconcerted by the government’s diagnosis of falling birth rates. In 2017, a study by a government-affiliated research agency pointed out the high academic and professional achievements of women as the cause of the drop in birth rates.

While South Korea’s aging population crisis is not unique, demographers say its pace is unprecedented. About 14% of South Koreans are now elderly. This is below the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development average, according to the group’s most recent data from 2018, almost half the level of Japan and below the 20% range observed in parts of Europe.

But in two decades, South Korea’s elderly people will exceed 40% of the total population, said Lee Sam-sik, director of the Aging Society Institute at Hanyang University in Seoul.

“It is a huge leap in the elderly population in a very short period,” said Lee.

—Peter Landers in Tokyo contributed to this article.

Write to Eun-Young Jeong at [email protected]