South Korea seemed to be winning the fight against coronavirus: Quickly increasing your tests, contact tracking and quarantine efforts were rewarded when it withstood an early outbreak without the economic pain of a blockade. But a deadly resurgence reached new heights during Christmas week, leading to a reflection on how the nation went into crisis in its sleep.
The 1,241 infections on Christmas Day were the biggest daily increase. Another 1,132 cases were reported on Saturday, bringing the number of cases in South Korea to 55,902.
More than 15,000 have been added in the past 15 days alone. Another 221 deaths in the same period, the deadliest stretch, brought the death toll to 793.
As the numbers continue to rise, the shock to people’s livelihoods is deepening and public confidence in the government is waning. The authorities may decide to increase social distance measures to maximum levels on Sunday, after resisting for weeks.
Tighter restrictions may be unavoidable because transmissions have outpaced efforts to expand hospital capacity.
KIM HONG-JI / REUTERS
In the Seoul metropolitan area, more facilities have been designated for COVID-19 treatment and dozens of general hospitals have been forced to allocate more ICUs to patients with viruses. Hundreds of soldiers were deployed to help track contracts.
At least four patients died in their homes or long-term care facilities while waiting for hospitalization this month, said Kwak Jin, an official at the Korean Disease Prevention and Control Agency. The agency said 299 out of 16,577 active patients were in serious or critical condition.
“Our hospital system will not collapse, but the crushing of patients with COVID-19 significantly hampered our response,” said Choi Won Suk, professor of infectious diseases at Ansan Hospital at the University of Korea, west of Seoul.
Choi said the government should have done more to prepare hospitals for a winter wave.
“We have patients with all types of serious illnesses in our ICUs and they cannot share any space with COVID-19 patients, so it is difficult,” said Choi. “It is the same medical team that has been fighting the virus for all these months. There is an accumulation of fatigue.”
Critics say President Moon Jae-in’s government has become complacent after quickly containing the outbreak this spring, which was centered in the southeastern city of Daegu.
The past few weeks have emphasized the risks of putting economic concerns before public health when vaccines are at least months away. Authorities lowered social distance rules to their lowest level in October, allowing high-risk venues such as clubs and karaoke rooms to reopen, although experts warn of a viral spike during the winter when people spend more hours indoors.
Jaehun Jung, professor of preventive medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine in Incheon, said he expects infections to gradually subside over the next two weeks.
The quiet streets and long lines winding around the test stations in Seoul, which are temporarily providing free tests to anyone, regardless of whether they have symptoms or clear reasons to suspect infections, demonstrate a return to public alertness after months of pandemic fatigue.
Officials are also restricting private social gatherings until January 3, closing ski resorts, banning hotels from selling more than half of their rooms and setting fines for restaurants if they accept groups of five or more.
Still, reducing transmissions to the levels seen in early November – 100 to 200 a day – would be unrealistic, said Jung, anticipating that the daily figure would close about 300 to 500 cases.
The higher baseline may require a stricter social distance until vaccines are launched – a terrible prospect for low-income and self-employed workers who run the country’s service sector, the part of the economy that the virus has most damaged.
“The government must do whatever it takes to ensure sufficient supplies and advance administration of vaccines as soon as possible,” said Jung.
South Korea plans to secure about 86 million doses of vaccines next year, which would be enough to cover 46 million people out of a population of 51 million. The first supplies, which will be AstraZeneca vaccines produced by a local manufacturing partner, are due to be delivered in February and March. The authorities plan to complete the vaccination of 60% to 70% of the population by November.
It is a disappointment that the shots did not arrive sooner, although officials have insisted that South Korea can wait and see, as its outbreak is not as dire as in America or Europe.
South Korea’s previous success can be attributed to its experience in combating an outbreak of MERS in 2015, the Middle East respiratory syndrome, caused by a different coronavirus.
After South Korea reported its first COVID-19 patient on January 20, the KDCA was quick to recognize the importance of mass testing and accelerated an approval process that had private companies producing millions of tests in just a few weeks.
When infections sparked in the Daegu region in February and March, health officials were able to contain the situation in April, after aggressively mobilizing technological tools to track contacts and impose quarantines.
But that success was also a product of luck – most infections in Daegu were linked to a single congregation. Health professionals are now having a much harder time tracking down transmissions in the populous area of the capital, where clusters are popping up almost everywhere.
So far, South Korea has resisted the outbreak without blockages, but a decision on Sunday to raise distance restrictions to the highest “Tier-3” could close hundreds of thousands of non-essential deals across the country.
That could be the best, said Yoo Eun-sun, who is struggling to pay the rent for three small music academies he runs in Incheon and Siheung, also near Seoul, amid student shortages and periodic closings.
“What parents would send their children to piano lessons for,” unless broadcasts slow down quickly and decisively, she said.
Yoo also feels that the government’s median approach to social detachment, which targets specific commercial activities while keeping the wider part of the economy open, has placed an unfair financial burden on companies like hers.
“Whether in tutoring academies, gyms, yoga studies or karaoke, the same set of companies is being hit continuously,” she said. “How long can we continue?”