UK social detachment regulations may need to remain in effect throughout 2021 if Chinese coronavirus vaccines are not at least 85% effective, government scientists have warned.
An article commissioned by SPI-M, a government subgroup of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) quango, said Britain would face a third wave of coronavirus if vaccinations do not substantially reduce the rate of transmission.
The report, seen by The telegraph, says: “Only vaccines that offer high effectiveness in blocking infections with high absorption in the general population allow the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions without a large increase in deaths.”
“While the new SARS-CoV-2 vaccines offer a potential exit strategy for this outbreak, it is highly dependent on the infection-blocking (or blocking transmission) action of the vaccine and population absorption, both of which need be carefully monitored as vaccine programs are implemented in the UK and other countries, ”he continued.
In the best scenario presented by modelers at the University of Warwick, where vaccines are able to interrupt 85 percent of vaccine transmission, then, to prevent an increase in deaths, blocking measures would have to remain in effect until the end of May. – more than a year after the first blockade was introduced in England.
If vaccines provide a 60 percent drop in transmission, blocking measures will need to be replaced by a social distancing regime similar to what was in effect in September, with large crowds still banned by the end of 2021.
Scientists told government ministers that if Boris Johnson lifted blockade measures in mid-February, the country could see another spike in infections and a similar number of deaths to those witnessed during the first wave in April 2020.
Britain’s newly installed vaccine minister, Nadhim Zahawi MP, said: “There is probably still four weeks to go before we get some of that data, but that should allow us to make plans … we will be able to see the impact of vaccines on transmission and also in hospitalization and serious infection. “
A leading British health expert said grandparents should avoid hugging their grandchildren and families, even after they received the coronavirus vaccine. https://t.co/GtTRuehnEQ
– Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) January 22, 2021
A government spokesman said: “At this early stage of the vaccination program, scientists do not have enough data to advise how the vaccine can affect later transmission.
“As a large number of people in high-risk groups are vaccinated, we will be able to gather evidence to assess the impact on rates of infection, hospitalization and reduced deaths. It is important to continue to follow national restrictions, the NHS Test and Trace instructions and to isolate yourself if instructed to do so, even if you have had the vaccine. “
Boris Johnson’s government has so far given mixed messages about when blocking measures will finally be lifted, with some projections pointing to late spring or early summer.
Last week, Breitbart London reported that the government “quietly” extended the blocking powers of local councils until July.
In response to the extension of the blocking powers, London’s mayoral candidate David Kurten said: “The Johnson regime has again ‘quietly changed the law’ to extend the blocking powers until 17 July. The unnecessary destruction of our civil liberties and the economy will never end until the people end it. I support the Great Reopening. “
Rona Forever! Government scientist suggests that the British can wear masks for years https://t.co/QlivD7Okfo
– Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) December 3, 2020
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