Credit: Jacob Norlund via Flickr
Mother Nature is in a rare mood this week, giving consistent tips on her storm trail and how much snow she can bring to southern Minnesota on Saturday. In fact, we are talking about four or five consecutive days without major changes in the forecast, which seems a rarity today.
Now the question is whether the forecast will remain true when the snow stops falling.
How much can Minnesota residents expect? The National Weather Service continues to forecast the largest amounts – 4-7 inches of fluffy snow – falling along the Minnesota River Valley in an area usually between Redwood Falls and Mankato, with up to 7 inches also possible south of Mankato along the corridor Interstate 90.
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The official forecast for the twin cities is 3-5 inches, although only 2-4 inches are forecast for the northern suburbs.
Credit: NWS Twin Cities
Snow is expected to arrive in southwest Minnesota at around 8 am and head east, reaching the Twin Cities metropolitan area in the early afternoon. The snow must be completely out of here when most people wake up on Sunday morning.
Credit: NWS Twin Cities
Here is a look at the future simulated radar of the HRRR model, which shows the darkest shades of blue (indicating heavier snow) in southern Minnesota.
The winds will not be much of a problem, so blowing and drifting is not a major concern with this storm, but the weather service believes the roads will be covered with snow, leading to some dangerous travel conditions. Here is a look at the winter storm severity index, which shows moderate travel problems in the twin cities and where the highest snow totals are forecast in southern Minnesota.
Credit: NWS Twin Cities
We talked a lot about the snow: liquid ratio this week, and the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service says its predictions are based primarily on a 15: 1 ratio, which means that for every inch of liquid there can be 15 inches of snow .
This storm is not expected to spill an inch of liquid, but instead releases somewhere between 0.20 and 0.50 inches, with the largest amounts (0.40 inches) along the Minnesota River Valley and the south-central from Minnesota. Half an inch of liquid in a 15: 1 ratio would generate 7.5 inches of snow, while half an inch of liquid in an 18: 1 ratio would fall in 9 inches.
Here is the amount of liquid that the latest HRRR model is projecting, which, if necessary, would put between 3-5 inches of snow on most of the metro, just as the weather service is predicting. Do the math for your area by multiplying the decimal numbers below by 15. (Example: 0.4 times 15 is 6 inches of snow.)
Credit: Pivotal Weather