SHORT TERM FORECAST
TODAY: Cloudy with periods of light snow coming in this morning, gradually mixing and changing to sleet and freezing rain. A 1 ”layer of snow and ice cover for most; 1-3 ”of snow in Poconos. High: 32
THIS NIGHT: A little snow, ice or rain decreasing to drizzle or freezing drizzle. Low: 30
WEDNESDAY: A persistent agitation in some places in the morning; otherwise, milder with clouds breaking for some sun. High: 41 Low: 25
FORECAST SUMMARY
After a stormy, cold but dry weekend, we finally got a break from the strong, biting breeze on Monday. But in return, the sun gave way to rising clouds as the day progressed, ahead of our next climate maker.
And yes, a storm system we’ve talked about since last week is still in the process of impacting us today with a winter round. But no, a big winter storm is not expected. In fact, it is more of an uncomfortable event with a round of light snow, than a light mixture of hail, freezing rain and intermittent rain.
Only small accumulations of snow and ice are expected, but remember, it doesn’t take much, especially when it comes to ice, to create a slippery localized displacement.
Once that weakened and somewhat disorganized system moves away, we are left with mostly dry weather for the rest of the week. A slightly milder Wednesday will give way to another chance of noticeably colder and windy weather later this week. Although a reasonably strong coastal storm is raging east of the Carolinas in the middle of the week, it must remain safe at sea far south and east. Our next opportunity for winter weather would come at the end of the weekend or early next week with the next storm in the pipeline, although the course and strength, of course, remain uncertain at this point.
DETAILED FORECAST
TODAY
Our disorganized storm will spread moisture over the region today, in the form of a light mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain.
Some areas saw some snowflakes in the late Tuesday morning, but many areas saw only hail and freezing rain. Temperatures are fluctuating around zero during the day. South of Interstate 78, precipitation will change to normal rain around midday and will remain so for the rest of the day.
Precipitation should be light and intermittent, but a one-inch layer of snow and 0.10 “or less of ice (freezing rain) is possible throughout the area, perhaps with a few inches of snow at the highest elevations in Poconos and extreme northwest New Jersey.
Small amounts of snow shouldn’t be so problematic, but a little freezing rain and a light frosting is enough to cause problems, so be careful with slippery journeys, especially in areas where freezing rain is dominant.
TONIGHT
Our light winter mix will gradually decrease towards the end of the night; however, the low-level stagnant moisture left behind will aid in the development of drizzle or cold drizzle. This will likely continue for a while overnight.
We will have to continue to pay attention to some slippery spots, although any major roads and certainly everything that has been dealt with should be fine. Overnight lows will only drop to around 30 degrees.
WEDNESDAY
This will be the best overall day of the week, in terms of temperature and climate. Expect a one-day warm-up to 40 degrees like clouds and perhaps a prolonged gust or two before giving way to milder sunshine. Although there is a bit of a northern breeze behind our storm, it shouldn’t be too excessive, not worse than 10-15 mph.
THURSDAY TO SATURDAY
A strong oceanic storm will develop well off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, too far away to provide us with snow. However, it will help to drag down a blast of arctic air as it moves away. Although the core of the cold will settle in New England, we will certainly feel the cold too, with a few bursts of breeze from north to northwest bringing the cool air from Thursday to Friday, with the cold persisting until Saturday as well, but with more winds light.
Expect highs in just 30s on Thursday, even with rare (for this winter) few days when highs are stopped in the mid-20s on Friday and Saturday, with chills all the time. Nighttime casualties will fall deeply into adolescence each night. Regarding the weather, expect a good amount of clouds on Thursday and then the sun will rise, despite the cold on Friday and Saturday.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY
The cold will lessen at the end of the weekend and at the beginning of next week, as our next window for a wintry climate approaches. At first glance, the setting looks favorable with a high cold pressure in the north over Canada and a storm passing south and possibly reorganizing on the coast. But we learned this winter that things need to fit together perfectly for a bigger storm, as the pieces can always be separated and not hit us if the weather is wrong.
At least there is something to be observed in the long run, but it remains to be seen whether it will work.
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