JERUSALEM – In the last attempt by the United States to negotiate a nuclear agreement with Iran, the Israeli government’s reaction was sharp and violent. In the years prior to Iran’s 2015 agreement with Washington and several other major powers, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly called his negotiations “historic error”, even delivering a speech in Congress in 2015 condemning the opening of the Obama administration to an agreement.
But on Friday, the formal announcement that the Biden government was seeking a return to nuclear talks with Iran, following the collapse of the 2015 agreement under President Donald Trump, was initially met with a silent response – not just in Jerusalem , but also in the Gulf States of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which are also opposed to a generous rapprochement with Iran.
On Friday afternoon, Netanyahu’s office issued a brief statement, avoiding direct comments on the negotiations, but noting that Israel was in contact with the United States.
“Israel remains committed to preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and its position on the nuclear deal has not changed,” the statement said. “Israel believes that returning to the old agreement will pave Iran’s path to a nuclear arsenal.”
Western diplomats and former Israeli officials said the Israelis were still digesting the news and thinking about how to respond, but that they accepted the need to engage constructively with Washington instead of dismissing the negotiations immediately.
“The question is,” said Tzachi Hanegbi, Israel’s Minister of Community Affairs, in an interview with The New York Times on Friday, “what is the policy of the new government regarding the outcome of the negotiations?”
The Israeli government has not intrinsically opposed the talks, said Hanegbi. But the negotiations should result in a better deal than the one agreed in 2015, which Israel and the Gulf countries condemned because their restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities would expire in a decade and a half and did little to contain Iranian military activity across the East Average.
“We would like the negotiations to emphasize what the world would like to see: an agreement for longer – for at least 50 years, if not more,” said Hanegbi. Israel cannot accept “an agreement that will expire in four to five years,” he added. “It has to be an agreement that is valid for generations. Anything else will not achieve the goal of preventing a nuclear Iran. “
Saudi and Emirati officials were silent on Friday. Watching the Biden government’s action in Tehran with resignation, the two Gulf States – which were outraged at being excluded from the last round of negotiations – can only hope that the United States will keep its promises to ensure that the Gulf’s interests are represented in the negotiations, analysts said.
“We just have to trust the new administration; we have no option, ”said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political scientist in the Emirates. “They are really determined to get to Iran, so there is no way anyone can stop them.”
But he acknowledged that there could be something to gain, saying: “If the end result is less confrontation with Iran, a less aggressive Iran, a less expansionist Iran, it is a kind of dream.”
The Israeli government has yet to announce a clear response to the change in American policy, said Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence. But, at least initially, he said, he will take a much less combative approach to the policy making of the Biden administration than to that of President Barack Obama.
“I think they will be very careful,” said Yadlin of the Israeli government. “The Americans have not yet returned to the agreement and will try to create a dialogue that will help them reach a longer and stronger agreement.”
He added: “In practice, they will not face the Biden government directly. They will wait a while to see if the Iranians are reacting and how the negotiations are going. ”
In Europe, where leaders have long expected the United States to return to the table with Iran, there has been a more positive response. “The US is giving diplomacy a chance,” Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, wrote on twitter. “We expressly welcome and support this!”
Maas also warned Iran against taking aggressive measures precisely at a time when diplomatic advances seemed possible. “Now Iranian leaders must also show that they are serious,” he said.
In Russia – Iran’s ally and signatory to the nuclear deal – the Biden government’s decision meant that the Kremlin, for the first time, had something positive to say in the direction of Washington. In particular, he praised how the White House also backed down from a Trump-era effort to restore United Nations sanctions on Iran.
“Interrupting the request for sanctions is a good thing in itself,” said Dmitri S. Peskov, spokesman for President Vladimir V. Putin. “This is an event that can probably be marked with a plus sign.”
In the Gulf region, which sees Iranian expansionism as a major threat, the climate was more subdued, with undercurrents of pessimism.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political commentator who is seen as close to the government, said that Saudi Arabia had been signaling to the Biden government for months that it supported a re-engagement with Iran, but only if the goal was a more comprehensive agreement than the 2015, formally known as the Joint Global Action Plan.
“Now the question will be, is this just rhetoric and will Biden’s people just effectively produce an identical recreation of JCPOA, with all its flaws?” Mr. Shihabi said. “Or will this lead to a better deal and some additional restrictions on Iran’s regional behavior? Biden’s people are making all the right noises, but the proof is in the pudding ”.
Saudi Arabia has been careful to emphasize the positive in its relations with the Biden government so far, wanting to show that it remains a constructive partner when it comes to Iran or other regional issues, said Eman Alhussein, a Saudi analyst in the Arab states of the Gulf Institute in Washington.
“They want to be seen as part of the solution to these problems,” said Alhussein, adding that Saudi Arabia may wish to do so because of the “atmosphere of apprehension” about the kingdom’s uncertain relationship with the United States.
Biden officials said they want to recalibrate the partnership in what would be an inevitably cold turn, after four years of strong support from the Trump administration.
Patrick Kingsley reported from Jerusalem and Vivian Yee from Cairo. The report was contributed by Irit Pazner Garshowitz in Jerusalem, Steven Erlanger in Brussels, Roger Cohen in Paris, Melissa Eddy in Berlin and Anton Troianovski in Moscow.