The Patriots were linked to quarterbacks from across the board, from Baker Mayfield, who ended up taking first place overall, to Chad Kanoff, who was not selected in 2018.
The Patriots showed interest in the pre-draft in Mayfield, Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson, all of whom were in the first round, and they had the necessary ammunition with two picks from the first round, one of which was acquired by swapping wide receiver Brandin Cooks to the Los Angeles Rams, to go up.
The Patriots ended up standing still and taking the left for Isaiah Wynn 23rd overall and the running back Sony Michel 31st overall. They did not choose a quarterback until the seventh round, when they recruited Danny Etling of LSU (who briefly switched to wide receiver a year later). They exchanged that choice of second round that they received for Garoppolo so many times that there is no longer a clean, direct line connecting him to a project transport.
The Patriots summoned cornerback Duke Dawson in the second round after several negotiations and waited until the fifth round to catch their next player, linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley. They selected linebacker Christian Sam and wide receiver Braxton Berrios in the sixth round, and Etling, cornerback Keion Crossen and tight end Ryan Izzo in the seventh round. The best discovery of the year was the cornerback of free agent JC Jackson. They also hired punter Corey Bojorquez, who now stars for Buffalo Bills, after the draft.
The Patriots also made four smart deals to acquire veteran players. They sent their third round pick to the San Francisco 49ers for the offensive attack Trent Brown (another fifth round pick), a 2019 third round pick for defensive tackle Danny Shelton (another 2018 fifth round pick) , a fifth round pick for wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson (plus a sixth round pick) and a sixth round choice for cornerback Jason McCourty) plus a seventh round pick).
The Patriots, as you may recall, ended up winning the Super Bowl LIII with important contributions from Michel, Brown, Shelton, Patterson and McCourty. They prepared well to win their sixth Super Bowl and third in five seasons. Technically, teams should only win the Super Bowl every 32 years, and what the Patriots achieved in the 2018 NFL Draft helped them win a ring.
If that’s all that matters to you, and it’s completely understandable if that’s the case, then you may want to stop reading here before we get into revisionist history issues.
MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACKING
It would have been extremely difficult to reach first place overall to acquire Mayfield, whose Cleveland Browns is still in the postseason. The Patriots would need to not only negotiate their two first round choices, but probably also at least one future first round choice and additional selections. It is debatable whether Mayfield was worth the first general choice since Josh Allen of Buffalo Bills and Lamar Jackson of Baltimore Ravens, both of whom are still in the postseason, overcame him. The Patriots dodged a bullet by not trading with Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen. The counts went up for Allen, sending the overall 12th, 53rd and 56th picks to Tampa Bay Buccaneers to go up and take his quarterback from the future.
Using this trade value graph, that trade was worth 1,910 points. The seventh overall choice was worth 1,500 points. So, Bills ended up paying a little extra (in a business that worked wonderfully) to acquire Allen. To collect 1,910 points, the Patriots would have to negotiate the 23rd, 31st, 43rd and 95th overall choice. They are Wynn, Michel, Brown and that choice of second round acquired for Garoppolo, who became all or part of Dawson, Sam, Joejuan Williams, Damien Harris, Yodny Cajuste, Jarrett Stidham, Byron Cowart and Dalton Keene.
In a vacuum, you absolutely exchange the package for Allen. But the Patriots won a Super Bowl with Michel and Brown, and they probably wouldn’t have won a ring without starting the running back AND the left tackle.
The Patriots tried to hit Jackson, however, who came in 32nd overall, shortly after New England won over Wynn and Michel.
Wynn was a demanding choice at the time, because most assumed he would play guard in the NFL. He looks like the opponent of the Patriots’ future, but after losing 16 games as a rookie, eight in 2019 and six more in 2020, he is only on the field 37.5% of the possible games of his career. His approximate weighted career value, a benchmark metric for professional football, of 7 is the third lowest in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft, just above Rosen and Seattle Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny. Wide receivers DJ Moore and Calvin Ridley were 24th and 26th overall, respectively.
The Patriots took Michel 31st overall, adding the rookie running back to a positional group that already included Rex Burkhead, James White, Mike Gillislee and Jeremy Hill. They lost Dion Lewis at the free agency and ended up cutting Gillislee. Hill suffered an ACL break in the first Patriots game of the season. The Patriots got so shallow running back during the 2018 season that Patterson ended up having to be transferred from the wide receiver to play in the backfield. The Patriots needed a running back like Michel.
And Michel helped the Patriots win the Super Bowl LIII. There is debate as to whether a running back later selected or signed after the draft could have done the same, however.
Michel loaded the ball 209 times for 931 yards with six touchdowns and took seven passes for 50 yards in the regular season, then added 71 loads for 336 yards with six touchdowns and a 9-yard reception in the postseason.
We took a look at Michel’s game-by-game EPA, or the expected added points, to see how much value he provided the Patriots in the plays when he ran the ball or was hit off the field. We gathered these statistics at rbsdm.com and, yes, we see the irony in determining the value of a running back using a website called Running Backs Don’t Matter.
Week 2 in Jacksonville Jaguars: L 31-20 / -4.2 EPA
Week 3 at the Detroit Lions: L 26-10 / -5.9 EPA
Week 4 vs. Miami Dolphins: W 38-7 / -1.3 EPA
Week 5 vs. Indianapolis Colts: W 38-24 / 2.9 EPA
Week 6 vs. Kansas City Chiefs: W 43-40 / 3 EPA
Week 7 at the Chicago Bears: W 38-31 / -3 EPA
Week 10 in Tennessee Titans: L 34-10 / -2 EPA
Week 12 at the New York Jets: W 27-13 / 4.7 EPA
Week 13 vs. Minnesota Vikings: W 24-10 / -1.9 EPA
Week 14 at the Miami Dolphins: L 34-33 / -3.5 EPA
Week 15 in Pittsburgh Steelers: L 17-10 / -2.4 EPA
Week 16 vs. Buffalo Bills: W 24-12 / 3 EPA
Week 17 vs. New York Jets: W 38-3 / -3.4 EPA
Los Angeles x Division Chargers: W 41-28 / 3.6 EPA
AFC Championship in Kansas City Chiefs: W 37-31 / 2.4 EPA
Super Bowl vs. Los Angeles Rams: W 13-3 / .7 EPA
The Patriots won the three games Michel lost against the Houston Texans, Bills and Green Bay Packers.
Michel’s value made no difference in 14 of his 16 games during the 2018 season. Patriots’ Week 6’s victory over the Kansas City Chiefs is interesting, however, as New England won by three points, which was exactly Michel’s EPA. Subtract those three points and you will have a tie. Add a running back that could have produced at least 1 EPA, however, and it returns to being a victory for the Patriots. This is not a guarantee.
The week 14 loss to the Miami Dolphins is more definitive. The Patriots lost by 1 point, and Michel produced an EPA of -3.5 on that performance. Eliminate Michel and put on a slightly more valuable running back, and the Patriots can win the game and still finish 11-5.
Michel was in 26th place among 47 running backs qualified in Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Value adjusted by defense over average), with -2.7 percent. Newcomers Gus Edwards and Phillip Lindsay, chosen in the second round, Nick Chubb and Kerryon Johnson, and free agents Mike Davis, Frank Gore and Isaiah Crowell, all ended with a superior DVOA.
Michel benefited a lot from defender James Develin and a strong offensive line, while receiving what he was given as a rookie. Michel finished 29th out of 50 running backs in rush yards after contact fee. He was the 12th out of 19 qualified running backs in rush yards after the contact fee in the playoffs.
Jackson, one of the NFL’s best current quarterbacks, was a choice behind Michel and would have resolved the issues of the Patriots in position in the future. Chubb, linebacker Darius Leonard and wide receiver Courtland Sutton were all 10 of Michel’s choices. The narrow ends Mike Gesicki and Dallas Goedert were eliminated in the second round.
The Patriots’ 2018 NFL Draft would look much better on paper if they had won Ridley 23rd and Jackson 31st. If they didn’t switch to the 43rd overall choice, they could have chosen Goedert, but they may not have ended up with Dawson, Sam, Williams, Harris, Cajuste, Stidham, Cowart or Keene. Dawson and Sam are no longer with the Patriots. Cajuste has yet to make his NFL debut. The Patriots received minimal contributions from Williams, Stidham and Keene. Harris was a good find, although it is somewhat redundant with Michel. Cowart was a beginner in 2020.
But the Patriots may also not have won the Super Bowl LIII without Michel. On the other hand, Lindsay and Edwards were more valuable running backs for three seasons as free, non-hired agents. There is a strong argument that the Patriots could have won the Super Bowl with a different running back than Michel.
Edwards was supposed to be on the Patriots’ radar after his senior season at Rutgers. Edwards actually started his university career in Miami. The Patriots ended up with quite an incredible amount of former Edwards Hurricanes teammates, including, but possibly not limited to Phillip Dorsett, Asante Cleveland, Ufomba Kamalu, Braxton Berrios, Trent Harris, Michael Jackson, Michael Pinckney, Tyler Gauthier and Tyree St. Louis. So the Miami teams of the mid-2010s were definitely on the Patriots’ radar.
The Patriots would be better configured for the future if they had designed it differently in 2018; they won a Super Bowl with what they ended up with that spring.
There is a fine line to draw where the Patriots could have chosen better at the top of the draft while still acquiring Brown, Shelton, Patterson and McCourty and New England could have won a Super Bowl and established themselves better by taking Moore, Ridley, Jackson, Chubb, Leonard or Gesicki.
It is a fascinating draft that defines the future for the Patriots and the entire NFL. If the Patriots can still find their quarterback of the future in this off-season, then there will be less regrets about what unfolded in 2018. If there are more seasons like 2020, when they finished 7-9, then thoughts about this class of 2018 will remain New England.
There is really no satisfactory conclusion as to how the Patriots we must dealt with the 2018 draft. Wynn could still be the left opponent of the future. Michel was not worth being chosen in the first round until this point in his career, but he also helped to win the Super Bowl. Who knows if the Patriots could have made up for that Super Bowl in the future by recruiting Jackson.
In a year when the Patriots clearly needed a defender, however, it is difficult that they did not end with the three players who still lead their teams in the postseason.
Miniature photo via Paul Rutherford / USA TODAY Sports Images